Week 7 NFL Picks

1-3 on the regular picks, but hitting my 3rd Wild Card of the season helped, especially since the other guys hit their WC's as well. I need to start making good picks, starting to wonder what the hell is going on right now.. Might be up near the top in points which is important, but my record looks absolutely terrible. Not up to my standards.

Dallas -1 @ Carolina: This spread jumped out to me before any other spread. Dallas just went into Baltimore, where Baltimore simply does not lose, and they took them down to the last seconds. It's a game they actually should've won. And they're only a 1 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers? What am I missing here? I don't particularly love Tony Romo, but without DeMarco Murray and having to use a pass catching back in Felix Jones, he should be throwing all day and should burn this Panthers secondary which employs a couple of the worst safeties in the league.
(Source: BETON)

New Orleans -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - The record might not be there, but the Saints are still a dangerous team in desperate need for wins. We might assume they're out of the playoffs, but there's no way Drew Brees thinks they are, and he'll have them going coming out of the Bye Week. Absolutely no way the Saints are only a point better than the Bucs and I don't give a shit where the field is that they're playing on. 1 point should be an embarrassment. The defense also looks a lot better with more time under DC Steve Spagnuolo - Keep in mind it took the 2007 Giants a few games to adjust to him in his first couple of weeks on the job and they ended up leading the league in sacks and beating the 18-0 Patriots and one of the best offenses in history in the Super Bowl. Safe to say I have some faith in them. And their defensive captain should be back this week as well. Although dating back to 2008, this series is at 4-4 and I hate the Saints on the road, but two of those wins came @ Tampa Bay plus there's just too much good that has to be coming after all the bad the Saints have endured to start this season. UPDATE: Line was -1 yesterday when I wrote this, but to be fair I'm posting today and the line has moved to -2.5
(Source: 5dimes)

Seattle +7 @ San Francisco - I'm sure the Seahawks already watched the Giants/49ers game tape from this past Sunday, and I'm pretty sure the Seahawks defense is drooling. If the 49ers "vaunted" offensive line couldn't move the ball against the NY Giants, then sledding will be even tougher against the Seahawks. Here's some stats for you: Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 70 YPG. They're also 5th in the league with 17 sacks which will be tough to deal with without All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley who will be out with a concussion. Most impressive for me? They're 2nd in the NFL in PPG after going up against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo. All 4 QB's were in the Pro-Bowl last season, one happened to be the MVP of the league. Pretty sure Alex Smith is going to do nothing against this secondary which I think might just be the best in the NFL.
(Source: 5dimes)


Wild Card

Detroit +7 @ Chicago - In the wake of my Jay Cutler is terrible in primetime post, did you expect anything else?
(Source: 5dimes)

I Might As Well Have Been Matthew Stafford Yesterday

Someone hire the both of us on their staff for a million/yr if you want to win a Super Bowl this year.

Am I Good Or Am I Good? Week 4 Edition


Another big week for me as I improve to 8-3-1 this season with my LOCK picks. Most of the games Sunday went do to the last second to see if teams would cover the spreads, but for me I hit 2 out of 3 for the third week in a row. Props go out to Mike who hit all three of his picks to turn around a slow first couple of weeks. Even better, he took two extra games over on TheSportsBanter and hit those as well for a perfect 5-0 week! Nothing worse than when your birthday lands on a Monday, but going 5-0 helps, congrats.

On to the part where I show off:

What I said about the Lions/Cowboys game: Romo is still not 100% which means he's got an even better shot at making "I wish I was Brett Favre" throws and getting picked off. I think Calvin Johnson continues on his pace to score 94 TD's and the Lions win by a touchdown in Dallas.

Not sure if I could've been more accurate on this one. Cowboys were up 24 and Romo tries to imitate Brett Favre, throws 3 INT's and two of them are brought back to the house on consecutive possessions. Calvin Johnson catches two more TD's late, continues his monster pace. Lions win by 4.

Prediction: Romo gets picked off, Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by a TD. Actual: Romo gets picked 3 times, two for scores - Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by 4.

What I said about the Saints/Jaguars game: I don't understand this spread. Colston coming back this week, against the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars. 7 points? Jax needs at least 21 to start, right? Brees and the Saints just put up 40 and outscored Matt Schaub and the Texans by 7. You really think the Jaguars are keeping pace with the Saints? Unless MJD is running, throwing, and catching all over the field then there's no chance in hell this game is within 14 points. This is an absolute lock.

Brees throws for a season high with 351 yards, but only throws 1 TD and was picked off twice. Not ideal. But the Saints were still able to take care of business and win it by 13. MJD only got 11 carries and Gabbert couldn't do much in his 2nd career start. MJD needed to be more involved if they wanted a chance, but they kept it closer than it should have been. I had to check the box score, and yeah Colston was back, 1 catch 8 yards.

Prediction: New Orleans by 14 easily. Actual: New Orleans by 13, and it was a struggle.

What I said about the Dolphins/Chargers game: I don't like the Chargers. I said it. They don't have Gates healthy, they haven't been able to find a rhythm offensively and I hate their defense. They're notoriously a terrible first half team, and they almost lost to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as 14 point favorites. I think this game stays close and will be decided by a FG.

Even after I posted this I admitted this was a reach, and no where near a lock. But I felt confident the Chargers wouldn't cover just by looking at recent history. Norv Turner can never seem to get his team going before November and December. This game was actually close throughout and was 13-10 at the half. I was feeling good at that point, but then it turned into the Dan Carpenter show - Miami could not move the football past the 20 yard line. Can't even say their Red Zone offense was bad because it couldn't get there. As they kicked FG's the Chargers matched along with a TD to cover the spread.

Prediction: Game stays close and is decided by a FG. Actual: Game stayed close, then it didn't, Chargers by 10.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 4 LOCKS

I am 6-2-1 through three weeks so far, damn I should be charging for this type of expertise. Lost money risking a parlay on my three locks, but Atlanta fucked me hard, but I'm coming back strong this week. There are a lot of nice spreads out there, but I love three of them:

Detroit +1 - I am so on the Lions bandwagon I can't even stand it. They might go 16-0. Seriously though, how are they underdogs in this game? The Cowboys scratched out wins against the 49ers and the Redskins. I don't care what anyone says the Redskins are not a good team and they couldn't register a TD against them. Romo is still not 100% which means he's got an even better shot at making "I wish I was Brett Favre" throws and getting picked off. I think Calvin Johnson continues on his pace to score 94 TD's and the Lions win by a touchdown in Dallas.

New Orleans -7 - I don't understand this spread. Colston coming back this week, against the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars. 7 points? Jax needs at least 21 to start, right? Brees and the Saints just put up 40 and outscored Matt Schaub and the Texans by 7. You really think the Jaguars are keeping pace with the Saints? Unless MJD is running, throwing, and catching all over the field then there's no chance in hell this game is within 14 points. This is an absolute lock.

Miami +7 - I don't like the Chargers. I said it. They don't have Gates healthy, they haven't been able to find a rythym offensively and I hate their defense. They're notoriously a terrible first half team, and they almost lost to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as 14 point favorites. I think this game stays close and will be decided by a FG.

Something I Just Thought Of And It Involves Bashing The Cowboys So It's Funny

Remember that trade between the Cowboys and Lions for Roy Williams? I feel the need to recap that trade so we can all laugh together:

Cowboys received:

Roy Williams (promptly signed him to a five-year extension worth $45M with $20M guaranteed)
+
2010 7th rounder

Lions received:

2009 1st rounder (Brandon Pettigrew), 3rd rounder, and 6th rounder

Somehow the Cowboys thought Roy Williams was worth a first round pick.... Let's see two other interesting WR trades since....

Brandon Marshall to Miami for 2010 2nd rounder + a 2011 2nd rounder. Marshall also signed a four-year, $47M extension with Miami.

Santonio Holmes (who was ineligible for the first 4 games of 2010) goes to the Jets for a 5th round pick in what might go down as the biggest trade steals of all-time.

Compare those two deals for two top flight receivers with the one the Cowboys made for a mid-level WR in Roy Williams. Got to love seeing Jerry Jones screw up so badly, I want to say it gets old after a while, but it really doesn't.