Week 6 NFL Picks

So last week I waited until the injury report came out, barely used it, went against the picks I loved all week, and in the end I went 1-3. Coming off a miserable betting weekend on top of it, I'm ready to go with the instincts here and get after it.... Let's go.

(L) Pittsburgh -6 @ Tennessee - Although they didn't cover the spread, they ended up getting the W last week in a real physical battle with Philadelphia, containing Mike Vick and LeSean McCoy and forcing some turnovers. They're a hungry team and desperate for wins before getting into a brutal AFC North schedule. I like them to take care of business on TNF against a Tennessee team that's struggling badly to move the ball.

(W) Green Bay +3.5 @ Houston - Speaking of desperate, 2 and 3. Aaron Rodgers & Co. are coming off a brutal collapse to the Colts. Up 21-3 at the half, the Packers went to sleep and allowed Andrew Luck to take his team back for the W. Green Bay is starting to get questioned, and at 2-3 they're in a pretty big hole with the Vikings sitting at 4-1 atop the division. If Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite we all imagined they were, then a nationally televised game against the new best team in the NFL would be a great time to show up. Aaron Rodgers really needs to step up and have a monster game to get this team back on track.

(L) Minnesota +1.5 @ Washington - The Vikings have been impressive, namely Percy Harvin. The guy has been carrying the offense and taking pressure off of AP while the defense has stepped up to become one of the toughest in the league. None of this bodes well for the Redskins who are coming off a crushing defeat to the Falcons where they laid it all on the line. They didn't just lose the game, but lost their starting franchise QB as well - RGIII was concussed and is questionable at best this week. Redskins have also lost their last 8 home games.



Wild Card:

(W, +3 pts) NY Giants +7 @ San Francisco - Going to be a tough, physical, close game that I think will ultimately be decided by a last second field goal. If the Giants want to make sure they're the one's on the winning side of that FG, they'll need their pass rush to show up and make Alex Smith uncomfortable.

PS - What The Hell Is A Packer?

Like I get the other teams still in the playoffs, they have real mascots:

New York Giants: Pretty self explanatory, they're obviously giant fucking monsters stomping the rest of the NFL's midget dicks in.

Baltimore Ravens: A bird, I get it.

New England Patriots: All American - A Patriot, reminds me of Mel Gibson just going fucking ape shit in The Patriot, I don't know why, something about the name.

San Francisco 49ers: Come to think of it this name sucks pretty bad, too. Sweet nickname for your football team, name it after a number. You guys brainstorm names over a walkie talkie?

So what the hell is a Packer? Like is Green Bay known for packing shit? Was that where moving companies were invented? Did they create anal sex in Wisconsin? I was always under the assumption the gays in San Francisco laid claim to that.... Debate for another day.... But just because they're some old storied franchise we can't wonder how weak of a team name Packers is? What are you packing besides your fucking lockers right now? How unintimidating of a name is that? Like get out of the 1800's guys, maybe that's why you're illustrious home field advantage has been absolutely terrible this century. Sign of the times, time to change it up folks. Need a new name and you needed it 90 years ago. Maybe hit up a design team and work on that logo. A capital letter G isn't really popping off the helmet. Instead of being lazy and just slapping a letter on the side of your helmet and calling it a life, let's get creative here. Maybe put a guy putting some shit in boxes or something to symbolize a Packer doing whatever it is a Packer does.

Let's Talk More About That Fumble I Mean The Upheld "Runner Down By Contact" Play

So let's get serious here for a minute.... I'm going to ask a ton of questions in paragraph form: What's the point of Instant Replay right now? If a play like this is missed, by someone with the benefit of looking at these same exact pictures if not with more clarity - then what's the point? Where does it go from here? Do they review the replay rules? Like what if the Giants didn't absolutely steamroll the Packers? What if they end up somehow going to overtime? This is the play we go back to, right? I mean the ref came out and clearly said with authority that the play stands as called like he was 110% positive Jennings entire body smashed off the ground before the ball oscillated in his arms, right? That's how I took it at least. I was in such shock that it took me about 10 minutes to finally bombard Facebook with hate filled status updates. I was a solid "that was so 10 minutes ago bro" late in Facebook land, but I didn't care, I had to get it out. I mean what the fuck honestly happened here? Listen to me now, imagine the Giants lost?? But it doesn't matter - this type of shit can't fucking happen in the playoffs, there's just no room for it. Take this away, Giants are +4 in turnovers for the game and the Packers don't score the TD on this drive, and essentially it's at the very least a 37-13 game. That's without the assumption that the Giants unbelievable offense doesn't score after picking up this fumble in Packers territory. I'm showing hypothetical mercy to the Packers, they got beat bad enough as it it. But seriously, no way do these refs get another playoff game right? This crew has got to be done at this point. Like only a handful of preseason games for next year, right? Gotta be.

DISCOUNT BLOWOUTTTTTT

So who cares I haven't blogged in 10 days? No one on earth but more specifically the Giants, because they're too busy WINNING. Packers were too busy making State Farm Discount Remixes they forgot to get ready for a playoff game. Just can't handle the spotlight, that's why they couldn't go undefeated and that's why they couldn't put up a fight against the Giants. Can't blame them I guess, nothing you can do when you run into a fucking buzzsaw called Eli. Guy just carved through this Packers defense like it was nothing. Comes into Green Bay in the playoffs and just owns the fucking place. You think he or anyone else on this team gives a SHIT about going to San Francisco? Absolutely negative. They probably love it. Going to go in there, avenge their meaningless loss to them in a game they should've won by 20, and prove it when they beat them 30-10. Everyone wants to talk about Patriots/Giants rematch, I don't give a shit who the Giants play and neither do they - but I'll tell you one thing, you know whoever it is they're going to be absolutely SHOOK! Hottest team in the NFL right now, no question about it. Imagine JPP actually shows up in San Fran? Game will be over in the first quarter if he starts going off. Alex Smith is such a pussy I can't even stand it.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 13 LOCKS

First of all, I can't believe it's week 13 already - shit is flying by.... As Darren McFadden sits on the bench... Things have slowed down after a blazing hot start for me, but things could be worse and I could pick like Mike so things are still looking up.. We all had good weeks last week, but this week I feel a little stronger about some games than others, I like what's on tap this weekend:




If that's not the greatest picture in sports I don't know what is.

Seattle +3 - The Eagles are coming off a fucking embarrassing rout at home against the Patriots. They were up 10-0 and still managed to lose 38-20. They looked lost on defense and had no idea what to do on offense but throw the ball up for grabs. Desean Jackson is busy getting benched on a weekly basis, Rogers-Cromartie, Maclin and Vick are out and now Nnamdi Asomugha and LeSean McCoy are questionable. I just don't see a team getting up after a demoralizing loss to go cross country to play the Seahawks without half of their starters.

RODGGGGAAAAS! DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!!

Green Bay -6.5 - Look, I'm a die hard Giants fan. Even I can't understand how this spread is closing and getting smaller. The fact it's not two touchdowns is blowing my mind. Aaron Rodgers is going to discount double check all over this spread, he barely throws incompletions let alone INT's and the Giants only weapon is their missing pass rush which I saw on a milk carton last week. They're starting 6th round draft picks and undrafted FA's at linebacker, so expect Jermichael Finley to have a huge day over the middle and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to be running free across the middle all day. Not sure how the Giants figure out how to slow this offense down, let alone stop them.

Arizona +4.5 - This is just going off of recent performances. In Dallas' last five games, they're 1-4 ATS - eeking out victories against Washington (OT) and Miami at home by 1 point. Arizona on the other hand is 4-1 in their last five, beating Philly on the road and narrowly missing a win AT Baltimore. They have a solid run defense which will be tough for DeMarco Murray to navigate and John Skelton is figuring out all he has to do is throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald who should smoke Dallas' below average secondary.

2011 Record: 19-15-2 (WC 5-11)

Wild Card Picks

Carolina +3 - Okay, I feel like we do this literally every single week. This is a game I feel Carolina will win straight up so even if they don't, Mr. Cover All The Time will make things happen.

Kansas City +8 - Look I know I consistently go against the Bears, but even WITH Jay Cutler, how is the spread this high? They have Caleb Hanie behind center. I also think the addition of Kyle Orton will help Kansas City decipher some of Chicago's calls - Ala Kevin Kolb in Philadelphia. There's just nothing to like about this game, two backup QB's going after it, but I like KC's pass rush - if they can keep a game close against Pittsburgh they can definitely keep it close against Chicago with Hanie back there.

Week 11 Picks: Rock Bottom (@mspici)

I'm 0-9 over the last three weeks.

Broncos +6: White Jesus.
Dolphins -1: Bills are a fraud.
Packers -14: Best team in football, hands down.

Record: 12-16-2

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 6 LOCKS (Swag)

I am excited this week. I like a lot of games, but to my chagrin I can only choose three. I went 2-1 last week to put me 6 games over .500 and I plan on continuing that trend this week. I used up all my bad luck for the rest of the year on a poker tournament Wednesday so I should be ready to kill it this Sunday:



Did Cheddar Bob really think he was going to play this year? At least you kept your number.......




"Look at this motherfuckin' beast!!!!"

 Carolina +4 - Cam Newton is an absolute covering machine. He's 4-0 (w/ 1 push) ATS in his career so far, no matter the circumstance he finds a way to hit a last minute score. All of this is well and good, but I honestly don't even think he'll have to pull those heroics - I feel Carolina wins this straight up. His chemistry with Steve Smith is outstanding, he's got two huge targets in Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen that he's been able to use in the Red Zone. His monster performances through the air have softened up defenses and opened up lanes for D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart and they've both ran much better the last couple weeks.They have a weak defense, but Atlanta's is much worse. They're 28th in the league against the pass giving up a shade under 300 yards per. Cam is averaging 322. I can easily see Steve Smith having a huge game against this secondary and another historic weak for Killa Cam as he continues his rout on Rookie of the Year honors. Cam throws 3 TD's runs for another.

New Orleans -4 - The Bucs just made Alex Smith, yes THAT Alex Smith look like Drew Brees. 48-3?? They looked awful. Say they have a great week of practice and come out ready to play.... Well they're playing Drew Brees, the real Drew Brees this week. They're without Gerald McCoy, they're best defensive lineman. They struggle as it is to get to the QB, and with a Pro Bowler behind center for the Saints and the weapons they possess, this should turn ugly very quickly. The one thing I don't like is that the Saints tend to let weaker teams hang around a little bit, but I just don't see this being an option this week. I don't think they could let them hang around even if they wanted to, just by accident they'll be up two scores by the half. I see the Saints winning this in a landslide as Josh Freeman continues to regress like his name was Mark Sanchez. Jimmy Graham 2 TD's.

Lambeau Leaps 7, Rams 3

Green Bay -15.5 - Am I going to the well with Green Bay too many times? No. The Rams just flat out cannot be on the same field as this team. I hate saying it with such confidence, but there's just no way this game isn't won by less than 20. Honestly, if the Lions were still awful and the Packers already clinched the playoffs by now, I'd have a problem here. But the Packers don't even own 1st place outright in their own division. This is what keeps them focused and keeps them attacking on Sunday. There will be no 3rd quarter replacements, no letting off the gas, this is when a very good team beats the living shit out of a very bad team. Aaron Rodgers will go off for 430 yards and 4 TD's and I kind of think I'm lowballing it a little. Thank the Lions for keeping pressure on the Packers to make this an embarrassing game for the Rams. James Jones 2 TD's.

2011 Record: 10-4-1

*Honorable Mention Games (Said I wasn't going to do this every week.... I lied... I like it so deal with it, more free amazing analysis for you.)

Miami +7 - One reason and one reason only, these games are ALWAYS close. Look at this, the last 11 match-ups between the two teams: Dolphins by 4, Jets by 8, Dolphins by 5, Dolphins by 4, Dolphins by 7, Jets by 6, Jets by 27, Jets by 3, Jets by 3, Jets by 3, Dolphins by 4. Excluding the blowout of the Dolphins in their 1-15 season, these games are decided by an average of 4.7 points. The Jets of 2011 have a myriad of problems unlike previous seasons. If Miami can establish the run like every other team who has played the Jets this season, this came will stay close. Not to mention their inability to get anything going offensively and the Dolphins ability to rush the passer. I think the Jets win, but this game is decided by a FG.

Oakland -7 - I love the Raiders right now. They're coming back to LA for what is sure to be an extremely emotional homecoming with a ceremony prior to the game for Al Davis. They played inspired last week and won despite not rushing the ball the way they're capable of, and they were UD's on the road to a good Texans team. Expect them to be doubly motivated in front of a packed nut house against the Browns who are without corner Joe Haden and center Alex Mack, arguably two of their most talented players. Cleveland is giving up 125 yards per on the ground, that's music to DMC's ears. He will absolutely tee off on this defense and I expect him to light it up all day long. Once they get a lead I wouldn't be shocked if he racked up some serious yardage. He will open up the play action for Jason Campbell which will give Oakland's 7 WR's with 4.3 speed time to blow past Cleveland's porous secondary. DHB may continue his hot streak with Haden out of the lineup. Raiders by 17. Wow.

Week 6: Feeling Really Good About These Picks (MSpici)

Pretty boring Week 5 (1-1-1) keeps me at a game over .500 on the season. That’s not going to get it done. I need a huge week, and I think these three games offer some money-making opportunities. The picks:

Eagles PK: This game is for Philly’s season. If Michael Vick cannot lead his team to victory in DC on Sunday, we can start talking about the version 2012 Dream Team because the 2011 one will be finished. It’s impossible to come back from a 1-5 start and still make the playoffs. In my “11 Things” column, I somewhat boldly predicted the Eagles will make the playoffs which means I think they are going to win this game.

Bears -3: I am not a defensive coordinator but what is stopping the Bears from putting nine guys in the box to shut down AP and forcing Donovan McNabb to beat them? I can’t think of a single thing. Chicago got embarrassed on MNF by a top-5 team in the league. I don’t think they will let a bottom-5 team do the same thing to them on national television this week.

Packers -15: The best team in the league is playing at home against the worst team in the league. This spread should be closer to three touchdowns than two. The only thing I can see working in the Rams’ favor is they are coming off a bye week. Unfortunately, they didn’t get a new team during that bye so I’m guessing they’ll still suck.

Is 6 touchdowns too aggressive of a prediction for this guy on Sunday?

Record: 7-6-2

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 5 LOCKS

Had a good week last week even if I threw in a weird call about the Dolphins, didn't feel like going 3-0 obviously - when shit gets too easy I tend to lose my interest so I was just keeping myself on my toes. Couple games I really like this week so let's get right to it:

Bengals +2.5 - Not sure I completely understand this spread.. Basically saying the Bengals are just a half point better than Jacksonville.... I actually respect the Bengals who have been playing pretty good this season, and I think the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the NFL. If not for MJD they're right in the thick of the Andrew Luck race that has taken over the bottom of the NFL ranks. Apparently they don't need him because they have Sunshine at QB but I guess they don't notice he's not going to do much for them this year. The Bengals held Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to only 78 yards last week in a big win over the Bills, I see them handling MJD long enough to get themselves in position to win this game. I like the Bengals S/U so them getting points is music to these ears. Bengals by 10.



Giants -9.5 - I've said before I normally try and stay away from large spreads like this (that's what she said) but this includes a west coast team traveling east. On top of that they play the early game on Sunday. That's just pure hell. On top of that, it's the Seattle Seahawks. That's hell inside of hell. Add to that Tarvaris Jackson is the QB - Can this get any worse? Yes.... Then add to that the fact that the Seahawks are 13-32 ATS on the road since 2006. That's what I love to call a LOCK! Only thing that scares me, Tuck and Jacobs likely not to play - what helps me rest easy is I actually like DJ Ware and hope he gets a lot of touches behind Bradshaw in this game. I like Eli staying hot and going for 275 yards, couple scores and they win it 31-13.



"Yeah keep that helmet on 'cause I just embarrassed you, bro!"



Packers -6 - I just used the word bro because I feel like Aaron Rodgers would say that, anyway.... Is this a joke?? The Packers by 6? Um did anyone see what happened last year when these two met in the playoffs? 48-21, the Packers raped the Falcons when the Falcons were the #1 team in the NFC. Newsflash bro, Packers are 10x healthier and 100x better. Falcons fucking suck. There's just no reason this spread isn't -100. If the Packers play 50% they should cover this, and as long as Devin Hester isn't around to completely juke the shit out of their entire special teams unit, they should be fine. Packers 30-15 ATS on the road under McCarthy? Okay, Rodgers goes for 325 and 3 TD's and Packers get the W by two scores. Clay Matthews two sacks and a forced fumble and/or fumble recovery.

*Honorable mentions: Raiders +6 @ Texans, Titans +3.5 @ Steelers

2011 Record: 8-3-1

*Not going to do this every week but those are two more games I'm thinking about getting involved with this weekend.

Houston is looking good, but looked shaky without Andre Johnson in the second half of that Steelers game and they'll be without him for 3-4 weeks. I love DMC and think he's the best RB in this game. He will get a ton of touches which will result in a ton of yards. He will single handedly keep the Raiders close, if Jason Campbell can be mistake free they'll have a chance to steal one in Houston.

Steelers on the other hand, look like shit and there QB was in a boot all week - he'll be behind a terrible offensive line and going against a defense who can get hits on the QB. They're also 25th in the league against the run believe it or not and Chris Johnson is coming to town off of his first 100 yard game of the season and is looking to keep it going. That should help the already surprising Matt Hasselbeck be more comfortable in the pocket against a Steelers team who is unusually struggling getting to the QB this year. Outside of their Seahawks blowout, they have 2 sacks this year. Nuts. I like both these games but the other three jumped out a little bit more to me. Consider these as well... At your own risk.

Week 4 Picks: Don't Bet your Life On It

Finally, a winning week. First time that's happened all year. Feels good to get the monkey off my back. Now we can do some actual damage.

Giants -1.5: This is not an optimal situation for the Giants travelling cross-country after a huge road victory against their biggest rival. However, the Cardinals are not a good football team. They barely survived Cam Newton in Week 1, narrowly lost to the Skins in Week 2, and lost in Seattle last week. With Beanie Wells listed as a GTD (fantasy football kryptonite), Larry Fitzgerald is their only threat. Assuming the Giants double him all game – and there’s no reason not to – they should be able to leave the desert victorious.

Chargers -7: San Diego let Kansas City hang around for way too long last week. If the Chiefs had one of the top 28 quarterbacks in the league, they probably win that game. Luckily for the Chargers, they don’t and Matt Cassel played like himself in the fourth quarter. Despite the win, the Bolts have to be a little embarrassed that they only won by three despite being 15-point favorites. I think they come out on a mission this week and dominate.

Always tough betting on this guy

Packers -13.5: Aaron Rodgers is going to pick this secondary apart all day long. This should be over in the first quarter.

Record: 3-5-1

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 3 LOCKS

The kid is fire so far to open the season goin' all Mary J on 'em with the 4-1-1 record.

Let's get right to it:

San Francisco +2.5 - Really? Underdogs to Cincinnati? You would pick ginger Andy Dalton over Patrick Willis? Yeah fuckin' right. Cincinnati has no shot in this game, San Fran's D is too good for them and Andy Dalton is not prepared to look at this guy all day, zero shot. He'll piss his pants more times than they'll score.

Atlanta +1.5 - This is another one, how's this even possible? I'm putting $100 on this game, there's no way Atlanta loses. You just came off a game where your QB torched the "dream team" defense for a career high 4 TD's and Michael Turner looking like his old self again. Really think Tampa is going to put up much of a fight? The Bucs have the 31st ranked rushing defense, giving up an average of 156 yards a game. Fuck it, might put $200 on this.

Green Bay -3.5 - I think Chicago is the most over hyped team on earth. They fluked it to the NFC Championship game last year and then their quarterback faked an injury because he didn't feel like going to the Super Bowl. Green Bay went and they won, and until someone beats them - I pick them to win each week - and they win this one by at least 10. Because their quarterback isn't a pussy.

Most Obvious Post On NFL Kickoff Thursday When Saints Are Playing The Packers

Anyone ever make a better YouTube video? If they have, I've yet to see it. This is my favorite video of all-time. Any video that I use more than 5 quotes in my daily life, you've got me. "I put da team on my back doe" is one of the funniest lines in history. I always assumed he hit this on the last play and it was to win the game and that's why he was so amped up - but no it was only to put him up 49-20, dude's just a competitor.

And I always agreed that remakes are never as good as the original.... But the commentary on the Marshawn Lynch run might even be better:



HEY LITTLE BOY! LITTLE BOYYYY! DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAMN!

DARREN SHARPER HOLD MA DICKKKKKKKKK!