Week 11 Picks: Rock Bottom (@mspici)

I'm 0-9 over the last three weeks.

Broncos +6: White Jesus.
Dolphins -1: Bills are a fraud.
Packers -14: Best team in football, hands down.

Record: 12-16-2

Giants Sign Two Pro-Bowlers, A Top 20 RB, A FB and 1st Round CB - Oh Wait No That's Just All Our Players Coming Back From Injury At The Same Time

NY Post - The Giants had several marquee players missing time before the bye and nearly all of them participated in some aspect of practice. That bodes well for the Giants, who look to be at or near full strength for Sunday’s game against the winless Dolphins (0-6), the last game against an also-ran before a hellacious five-game stretch. “Everybody’s back,’’ safety Deon Grant said. “We’re just going to keep building and realize we got a lot of key guys back and just build off that. Let’s take care of Miami.’’ Taking care of the anemic Dolphins might not require a full complement of players, but if the Giants are to hold on to first place in the NFC East they figure to be greatly aided by bolstering their roster with the reinforcements ready to swoop in.


So the Giants are 4-2 using the Washington Sentinels roster on pretty much both sides of the ball. As if the lockout and preseason injuries weren't enough - basically every important piece of the team has been dealing with injuries. They go into the Post-Lockout bye week with the mandated "4 straight days off" rule, which sounds like shit, but nothing could've helped the Giants more than that. Tuck able to heal up, Snee becomes unconcussed, Hank the Tank is at full strength, Jacobs knee unswelled and the first round Prince is practicing pain free.


But after the Ravens had an automatic win last night turn into one of the biggest upsets of all-time, I'm nervous as shit about this game on Sunday. Dolphins with nothing to lose except their 50th game in a row, and the Giants with a lot to gain being able to distance themselves in the NFC East with a win right before they get into the most retarded second half schedule ever created. They need to win these games. They know it, the Dolphins know it. Pressure will definitely be on them all day to take care of business. It's one of those games as a Giants fan that you just never want to see - Coming off of a bye week trying to get up for an 0-6 team with games against NE, SF and Philly coming up. Hard to think the Giants aren't looking ahead to the huge games on the horizon, so this Dolphins game scares me.


But if we knew in the beginning of the year all of these guys would be on IR and Jacobs and Tuck would miss multiple games and our 1st rounder would be out until November... 4-2 would sound like an absolute fantasy. Fact is this team has heart, leadership and tons of character. Minus Antrel Rolle mouthing off like an asshole at times, this team is run like a team is supposed to be run - players keeping their locker room situations in the locker room - not calling out teammates for sucking and thinking you're being a leader. The Giants handled this shit better than any other team could have, now they've got their big boys coming back healthy for the holy shit part of the schedule. Couldn't be a better time to get to full strength, should be scary to watch Osi, Tuck and JPP on the line at the same time - Matt Moore has a good chance of getting killed this Sunday, awesome because I always wanted to see a murder in person. MetLife Stadium be there when the gates open to tailgate like a motherfucker! G-Men first place baby let's go!


PS - Any Giants fans wondering about Ramses Barden and if he's still alive, he actually somehow practiced yesterday and so far it looks like he didn't get hurt doing it. If I'm him I'm going and buying a lottery ticket immediately.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 7 LOCKS (Swag)

Last week was my first losing week of the season, went 1-2 (1-3-1 including the honorable mention games) so that drops my overall record to 11-6-1 (12-8-2 with honorable mentions) - okay I'm just calling them wild card picks now - so with wild cards included I'm 12-8-2, not awful but okay. So this week I actually have been monitoring a lot of the spreads due to the shake up around the league with some last minute trades. Some of them are moving in a favorable direction that I like, so here we go - rebound time:

Carolina -1 - This isn't so much about betting on the Panthers as it is going against the Redskins and their problems. I think the Redskins have a pretty good defense but I can't see them doing much of anything on the other side of the ball. It's the first time I've seen Carolina favored, so will be interesting to see how they play, but I'm sure they'll still feel like they're in the underdog role. Cam Newton had a rough game last week, but a tipped pass going his way instead of the Falcons and that game could've been completely different. I like Newton in this one, and I'll say he throws for one TD and runs for another two. He'll have to take this game over. Panthers 27, Redskins 23.

Seahawks +3 - Don't know why but I like the Seahawks here. They have the #1 rush defense in the league and they're opponent is a banged up Peyton Hillis who has struggled to get anything going this year. He doesn't have much of a chance to change that against this front. Seattle showed a spark with Viggo Mortensen here under center, so I like what they can do against Cleveland. Watch out for Doug Baldwin as he continues to impress. Seattle 23, Cleveland 16.



Ravens -8 - I don't like a veteran quarterback against the Ravens, so I obviously hate Blaine Gabbert against the Ravens. Each year we see a rookie get slaughtered by this defense and there's really no reason to think Gabbert won't have trouble. MJD will be the only one the Ravens prepare for, he will be quiet all game long and they'll force Gabbert to attempt to try and get a first down. I honestly think first downs will be an issue for Jacksonville, I see only FG's if anything at all. Flacco and Rice have been pretty much fantastic all season, I don't see it letting up on Monday Night Football. This game will get ugly quick for Blaine Gabbert. Ravens 31, Jaguars 6.

2011 Record: 11-6-1, WC 1-2-1 (12-8-2)

Wild Card games:

Indianapolis +15.5, Denver +1

Indianapolis hasn't played all that bad in their last couple games. Painter is continuing to look impressive each time out as he keeps improving. He's protecting the ball well and he's got a couple RB's at his disposal. They also have Peyton's old weapons - Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. If he can get the ball in their hands they can keep this game close. The Saints have been playing down to their competition all season, I can't see them turning it on all of a sudden for the winless Colts.

Denver has a lot going on, all eyes will be on Tim Tebow. He's starting IN FLORIDA to face the winless Dolphins. When was the last time an 0-5 team was favored? Tebow plays like an absolute champion even though everyone thinks he sucks, he still gets shit done. Now he'll be home in Florida where everyone worships him, he'll have another Tebow moment in his career and probably account for 5 TD's. Guy will have extremely high motivation and adrenaline, I see him having a huge game because he plays by far his best under extreme amounts of pressure.

Am I Good Or Am I Good? Week 4 Edition


Another big week for me as I improve to 8-3-1 this season with my LOCK picks. Most of the games Sunday went do to the last second to see if teams would cover the spreads, but for me I hit 2 out of 3 for the third week in a row. Props go out to Mike who hit all three of his picks to turn around a slow first couple of weeks. Even better, he took two extra games over on TheSportsBanter and hit those as well for a perfect 5-0 week! Nothing worse than when your birthday lands on a Monday, but going 5-0 helps, congrats.

On to the part where I show off:

What I said about the Lions/Cowboys game: Romo is still not 100% which means he's got an even better shot at making "I wish I was Brett Favre" throws and getting picked off. I think Calvin Johnson continues on his pace to score 94 TD's and the Lions win by a touchdown in Dallas.

Not sure if I could've been more accurate on this one. Cowboys were up 24 and Romo tries to imitate Brett Favre, throws 3 INT's and two of them are brought back to the house on consecutive possessions. Calvin Johnson catches two more TD's late, continues his monster pace. Lions win by 4.

Prediction: Romo gets picked off, Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by a TD. Actual: Romo gets picked 3 times, two for scores - Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by 4.

What I said about the Saints/Jaguars game: I don't understand this spread. Colston coming back this week, against the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars. 7 points? Jax needs at least 21 to start, right? Brees and the Saints just put up 40 and outscored Matt Schaub and the Texans by 7. You really think the Jaguars are keeping pace with the Saints? Unless MJD is running, throwing, and catching all over the field then there's no chance in hell this game is within 14 points. This is an absolute lock.

Brees throws for a season high with 351 yards, but only throws 1 TD and was picked off twice. Not ideal. But the Saints were still able to take care of business and win it by 13. MJD only got 11 carries and Gabbert couldn't do much in his 2nd career start. MJD needed to be more involved if they wanted a chance, but they kept it closer than it should have been. I had to check the box score, and yeah Colston was back, 1 catch 8 yards.

Prediction: New Orleans by 14 easily. Actual: New Orleans by 13, and it was a struggle.

What I said about the Dolphins/Chargers game: I don't like the Chargers. I said it. They don't have Gates healthy, they haven't been able to find a rhythm offensively and I hate their defense. They're notoriously a terrible first half team, and they almost lost to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as 14 point favorites. I think this game stays close and will be decided by a FG.

Even after I posted this I admitted this was a reach, and no where near a lock. But I felt confident the Chargers wouldn't cover just by looking at recent history. Norv Turner can never seem to get his team going before November and December. This game was actually close throughout and was 13-10 at the half. I was feeling good at that point, but then it turned into the Dan Carpenter show - Miami could not move the football past the 20 yard line. Can't even say their Red Zone offense was bad because it couldn't get there. As they kicked FG's the Chargers matched along with a TD to cover the spread.

Prediction: Game stays close and is decided by a FG. Actual: Game stayed close, then it didn't, Chargers by 10.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 4 LOCKS

I am 6-2-1 through three weeks so far, damn I should be charging for this type of expertise. Lost money risking a parlay on my three locks, but Atlanta fucked me hard, but I'm coming back strong this week. There are a lot of nice spreads out there, but I love three of them:

Detroit +1 - I am so on the Lions bandwagon I can't even stand it. They might go 16-0. Seriously though, how are they underdogs in this game? The Cowboys scratched out wins against the 49ers and the Redskins. I don't care what anyone says the Redskins are not a good team and they couldn't register a TD against them. Romo is still not 100% which means he's got an even better shot at making "I wish I was Brett Favre" throws and getting picked off. I think Calvin Johnson continues on his pace to score 94 TD's and the Lions win by a touchdown in Dallas.

New Orleans -7 - I don't understand this spread. Colston coming back this week, against the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars. 7 points? Jax needs at least 21 to start, right? Brees and the Saints just put up 40 and outscored Matt Schaub and the Texans by 7. You really think the Jaguars are keeping pace with the Saints? Unless MJD is running, throwing, and catching all over the field then there's no chance in hell this game is within 14 points. This is an absolute lock.

Miami +7 - I don't like the Chargers. I said it. They don't have Gates healthy, they haven't been able to find a rythym offensively and I hate their defense. They're notoriously a terrible first half team, and they almost lost to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as 14 point favorites. I think this game stays close and will be decided by a FG.

Something I Just Thought Of And It Involves Bashing The Cowboys So It's Funny

Remember that trade between the Cowboys and Lions for Roy Williams? I feel the need to recap that trade so we can all laugh together:

Cowboys received:

Roy Williams (promptly signed him to a five-year extension worth $45M with $20M guaranteed)
+
2010 7th rounder

Lions received:

2009 1st rounder (Brandon Pettigrew), 3rd rounder, and 6th rounder

Somehow the Cowboys thought Roy Williams was worth a first round pick.... Let's see two other interesting WR trades since....

Brandon Marshall to Miami for 2010 2nd rounder + a 2011 2nd rounder. Marshall also signed a four-year, $47M extension with Miami.

Santonio Holmes (who was ineligible for the first 4 games of 2010) goes to the Jets for a 5th round pick in what might go down as the biggest trade steals of all-time.

Compare those two deals for two top flight receivers with the one the Cowboys made for a mid-level WR in Roy Williams. Got to love seeing Jerry Jones screw up so badly, I want to say it gets old after a while, but it really doesn't.