Week 7 NFL Picks

1-3 on the regular picks, but hitting my 3rd Wild Card of the season helped, especially since the other guys hit their WC's as well. I need to start making good picks, starting to wonder what the hell is going on right now.. Might be up near the top in points which is important, but my record looks absolutely terrible. Not up to my standards.

Dallas -1 @ Carolina: This spread jumped out to me before any other spread. Dallas just went into Baltimore, where Baltimore simply does not lose, and they took them down to the last seconds. It's a game they actually should've won. And they're only a 1 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers? What am I missing here? I don't particularly love Tony Romo, but without DeMarco Murray and having to use a pass catching back in Felix Jones, he should be throwing all day and should burn this Panthers secondary which employs a couple of the worst safeties in the league.
(Source: BETON)

New Orleans -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - The record might not be there, but the Saints are still a dangerous team in desperate need for wins. We might assume they're out of the playoffs, but there's no way Drew Brees thinks they are, and he'll have them going coming out of the Bye Week. Absolutely no way the Saints are only a point better than the Bucs and I don't give a shit where the field is that they're playing on. 1 point should be an embarrassment. The defense also looks a lot better with more time under DC Steve Spagnuolo - Keep in mind it took the 2007 Giants a few games to adjust to him in his first couple of weeks on the job and they ended up leading the league in sacks and beating the 18-0 Patriots and one of the best offenses in history in the Super Bowl. Safe to say I have some faith in them. And their defensive captain should be back this week as well. Although dating back to 2008, this series is at 4-4 and I hate the Saints on the road, but two of those wins came @ Tampa Bay plus there's just too much good that has to be coming after all the bad the Saints have endured to start this season. UPDATE: Line was -1 yesterday when I wrote this, but to be fair I'm posting today and the line has moved to -2.5
(Source: 5dimes)

Seattle +7 @ San Francisco - I'm sure the Seahawks already watched the Giants/49ers game tape from this past Sunday, and I'm pretty sure the Seahawks defense is drooling. If the 49ers "vaunted" offensive line couldn't move the ball against the NY Giants, then sledding will be even tougher against the Seahawks. Here's some stats for you: Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 70 YPG. They're also 5th in the league with 17 sacks which will be tough to deal with without All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley who will be out with a concussion. Most impressive for me? They're 2nd in the NFL in PPG after going up against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo. All 4 QB's were in the Pro-Bowl last season, one happened to be the MVP of the league. Pretty sure Alex Smith is going to do nothing against this secondary which I think might just be the best in the NFL.
(Source: 5dimes)


Wild Card

Detroit +7 @ Chicago - In the wake of my Jay Cutler is terrible in primetime post, did you expect anything else?
(Source: 5dimes)

Feels Good To Be Back Home - First Place In The NFC East

DO IT ELI! Guy is a fucking boss. After Dez Bryant caught that TD it was easy to think this game was over, thought crossed my mind... But Eli was on point last night, minus the fact he can't set up a screen pass for the fucking life of him, I believed he'd make it interesting... See he has this weird thing, if they NEED to score a touchdown, he'll put them in a spot to do it. If they're up by 10 or just trying to keep possession to win a game, he is awful. He needs to be aggressive and off the leash, and the situation last night called for it and he delivered. Again. He finally started using Victor Cruz even after he dropped wide open passes in the first half, and it helped them move the ball in the middle of the field. Jake Ballard became huge in the fourth quarter again, making big time catches and slowly but surely running real crisp routes. Hakeem Nicks.... What else can you say about this guy? Every single week shows how he's one of the all around top WR's in the game - his route running is near perfect, his hands are huge, his footwork along the sideline is insane, and his mind game with Eli is perfect. The chemistry between the two is crazy, and came into play on a couple occasions last night when the Cowboys broke coverage. Mario Manningham.... Guy needs to buy another pair of hands. I'm actually happy he dropped the potential game winning touchdown, because it was definitely too early to score - but minus the long wide open busted coverage touchdown, he looked pretty bad last night. Sure, he's playing hurt, but since he came into the league he's had a bad habit of bobbling every pass thrown to him and last nights drop could've ended the Giants season had they not scored.

Defensively there's not much positive to say other than JASON-PIERRE-FUCKIN'-PAUL! 12.5 sacks including his first career safety last night. This guy is an absolute monster and has been bringing it every single game this season. He'll definitely be making a trip to Hawaii at the end of the year. Guy made the play of the game, and really only defensive play of the game, blocking the potential game tying kick and winning the game for the Giants.

Let's just get this out there because it's pretty obvious but I want to vent about it. I fucking hate Aaron Ross and he fucking sucks. Has there ever been a worse 1st round pick that hasn't lived up to his potential yet still plays? Besides David Carr, who's also on the Giants? Watching the last Cowboys drive I say to Craig: I'm watching Miles Austin right now because it's nuts that they have Aaron Ross on him. Who makes 2 huge catches to put the Cowboys in FG range? Miles Austin, with absolutely no defensive struggle from Aaron Ross. Guy is brutal in coverage and he's afraid to tackle people. He literally offers nothing to the defense at this point.. Love to see him cut but with the injuries it's impossible to let anyone go at this point.

Tony Romo might have thrown 4 TD's last night, but talk about NOT clutch - this guy and all the not clutch hype is completely warranted. He had ample opportunities to put the Giants away and he couldn't do it. The 3rd and 5 play when Miles Austin literally ran right past Aaron Ross on a Giants all out blitz, he was wide open with NOTHING around him and Romo overthrew him. Just make that play and the Giants season is literally over and you have a clear path to the division title.... Too much for Romo to handle and he flat out missed him. Cowboys punt, Giants score, game over.


Huge win, Giants now control their own destiny which is scary as fuck. I'll be at the game next week which just became a lot more interesting. Giants need this win against a scary Redskins team, and they'll already know what the Cowboys did since they play @ Tampa Bay on Saturday night. Giants are 2-2 in the division and will need this win because they need all tie-breakers they can get. Eagles still mathematically alive which really pisses me off, they win out and the Giants and Cowboys lose a game, they'll win the division. What happened to the NFC East?

PS - Can't wait for this team to be at full strength next year, they're going to be fucking SCARY!

Is This The Best Running Back In The NFL?

Let's get one thing clear here: I hate the Dallas Cowboys. I really hate them. I hate their owner and I hate everyone who plays for them. I hated when Bill Parcels decided to try and coach them, but he's still a NY Giant to me because he didn't really do much to help them win when he was there so it's okay. But this guy DeMarco Murray absolutely studded out yesterday. 253 yards on the ground including a 91-yarder to the house right off the bat.

How is anyone even questioning if he will be the starter when Felix Jones comes back after his 148th injury of his 10 minute career?

Here's what Felix Jones has done in his career so far:
41 games - 2,006 yards (49 yards/game) - 9 TD's (8 rushing) and a long of 60.

Better yet, look at this season:

5 games - 255 yards - 1 TD. 4 yards/carry, long of 60.

Murray on Sunday?

1 game - 253 yards - 1 TD. 10.1 yards/carry, long of 91.

So Murray pretty much equaled everything Jones has done this year in one game or really just 3.5 quarters. He did all of that in a game he didn't even start. Tashard Choice inexplicably started and had 8 yards and lost a fumble. Murray surpassed the Cowboys rookie record for yards in a game set by Hall of Famer Tony Dorsett and also the franchise record for anyone in a single game set by another Hall of Famer, Emmitt Smith.

The fact people are saying Jones will still be the starter is hilarious to me. Jones has never been an every down back, and all of a sudden he's that good that he can't be moved back to the 3rd down role? Just use him as a kick returner and change of pace back, that's where he should be. That's how he was used in Arkansas behind Darren McFadden and that's how he started off well in the NFL behind Marion Barber. He's not able to handle being used every down, he's injury prone and he's not as explosive as Murray.

Sure Murray did it against the Rams, fine. But who else ran for 253 yards against the Rams this year? No one. I don't care who you face, running for 253 yards in a game is nuts, and warrants immediate insertion into the starting lineup, no matter who is in front of you. Look, you get injured, your spot gets taken. That's life. If you wanted to stay the starter, you'd stop getting hurt every 5 minutes. Luckily Jones is going to be out next week when Dallas goes to Philly so Murray will more than likely get his FIRST NFL start against another bad run defense. Philly is coming off a post-lockout bye and won't have much time to prepare for this guy, so I expect him to have another good game. If the Cowboys are smart, which they usually aren't, they'll keep the ball out of Romo's hands and put it in Murray's - seems like the safest and smartest play. So I expect Romo to throw at least 4 picks next week.

PS - Also helps that I started him on my fantasy team in a week where two of my running backs absolutely would have crippled my chances of winning - Darren McFadden goes down after two carries and doesn't come back and Earnest Graham goes down with a ruptured achilles after 13 yards rushing. DeMarco Murray not only helped the Cowboys win, but he single handedly has kept me within striking distance as Ray Rice attempts to complete the comeback for me tonight. Need 12+ points, Ray Rice vs. Jacksonville? I like my chances. My prediction earlier in the week - Ravens 31, Jaguars 6.

Am I Good Or Am I Good? Week 4 Edition


Another big week for me as I improve to 8-3-1 this season with my LOCK picks. Most of the games Sunday went do to the last second to see if teams would cover the spreads, but for me I hit 2 out of 3 for the third week in a row. Props go out to Mike who hit all three of his picks to turn around a slow first couple of weeks. Even better, he took two extra games over on TheSportsBanter and hit those as well for a perfect 5-0 week! Nothing worse than when your birthday lands on a Monday, but going 5-0 helps, congrats.

On to the part where I show off:

What I said about the Lions/Cowboys game: Romo is still not 100% which means he's got an even better shot at making "I wish I was Brett Favre" throws and getting picked off. I think Calvin Johnson continues on his pace to score 94 TD's and the Lions win by a touchdown in Dallas.

Not sure if I could've been more accurate on this one. Cowboys were up 24 and Romo tries to imitate Brett Favre, throws 3 INT's and two of them are brought back to the house on consecutive possessions. Calvin Johnson catches two more TD's late, continues his monster pace. Lions win by 4.

Prediction: Romo gets picked off, Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by a TD. Actual: Romo gets picked 3 times, two for scores - Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by 4.

What I said about the Saints/Jaguars game: I don't understand this spread. Colston coming back this week, against the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars. 7 points? Jax needs at least 21 to start, right? Brees and the Saints just put up 40 and outscored Matt Schaub and the Texans by 7. You really think the Jaguars are keeping pace with the Saints? Unless MJD is running, throwing, and catching all over the field then there's no chance in hell this game is within 14 points. This is an absolute lock.

Brees throws for a season high with 351 yards, but only throws 1 TD and was picked off twice. Not ideal. But the Saints were still able to take care of business and win it by 13. MJD only got 11 carries and Gabbert couldn't do much in his 2nd career start. MJD needed to be more involved if they wanted a chance, but they kept it closer than it should have been. I had to check the box score, and yeah Colston was back, 1 catch 8 yards.

Prediction: New Orleans by 14 easily. Actual: New Orleans by 13, and it was a struggle.

What I said about the Dolphins/Chargers game: I don't like the Chargers. I said it. They don't have Gates healthy, they haven't been able to find a rhythm offensively and I hate their defense. They're notoriously a terrible first half team, and they almost lost to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as 14 point favorites. I think this game stays close and will be decided by a FG.

Even after I posted this I admitted this was a reach, and no where near a lock. But I felt confident the Chargers wouldn't cover just by looking at recent history. Norv Turner can never seem to get his team going before November and December. This game was actually close throughout and was 13-10 at the half. I was feeling good at that point, but then it turned into the Dan Carpenter show - Miami could not move the football past the 20 yard line. Can't even say their Red Zone offense was bad because it couldn't get there. As they kicked FG's the Chargers matched along with a TD to cover the spread.

Prediction: Game stays close and is decided by a FG. Actual: Game stayed close, then it didn't, Chargers by 10.

Jerry Jones Is Officially Outside Of His Mind

ESPN - Dallas Cowboys owner and general manager Jerry Jones considered Tony Romo's performance in the season opener "one of the best games I've ever seen him play" despite two critical turnovers late in the loss to the New York Jets.

Romo accepted the blame for the loss -- the first in franchise history after leading by 14 points in the fourth quarter -- after losing a fumble at the Jets' 2-yard line and throwing an interception that set up the game-winning field goal.

How old is this guy? He done running the worst organization in sports yet or what?


I know people want to say The Boss was the most insane owner of all-time, but you know what? The guy flat out wanted to win. He talked shit, he backed it up. In my opinion, he never said anything stupid - there was always a method to his madness. In Jerry Jones' case, there's no such thing as a method.


Guy got rich by striking oil or some shit, he's a fucking idiot who has no clue how to run a professional sports franchise. Sure he can make it profitable, but without sucking so bad that you can draft Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin and Troy Aikman - you don't win the Super Bowls you won.


1988: 3-13, Draft Michael Irvin (Round 1, Pick 11)
1989: 1-15, Draft Troy Aikman (Round 1, Pick 1)
1990: 7-9,   Draft Emmitt Smith (Round 1, Pick 17)
1991: 11-5, Playoffs
1992: 13-3, Super Bowl Champs
1993: 12-4, Super Bowl Champs
1994: 12-4, Playoffs
1995: 12-4, Super Bowl Champs


So thanks to sucking so bad, you drafted 3 Hall of Famers - which doesn't take a genius to do, and your team had some success. All of a sudden this guy is a good owner? When does that stop? How do you not take any heat without winning a playoff game in 13 years OR 1 playoff win in 15 years? (Whichever one looks better) Why are they always Super Bowl favorites?


And Tony Romo is the LeBron James of the NFL. Maybe not as big of a dickhead, I actually think Romo is a pretty nice guy, but holy choke artist. Why is Jones coddling him? I respect that Romo comes out and takes the blame, which he should - Who throws at Revis with the game on the line? - but it's so obvious Jones plays favorites, probably why the locker room implodes every season. Jones signed this guy for huge money, and he's done nothing but choke. So obviously he's going to have his back - but what the fuck are you talking about this is the best game you've seen him play? Are you serious?? Week 1 on national television and you have a 14 point lead going into the 4th quarter and you're franchise QB fumbles at the Jets 2 yard line and then throws a disgusting interception to Revis to lose the game and that's the best you've seen him play?? That's a really bad sign there Jerry boy.

Something I Just Thought Of And It Involves Bashing The Cowboys So It's Funny

Remember that trade between the Cowboys and Lions for Roy Williams? I feel the need to recap that trade so we can all laugh together:

Cowboys received:

Roy Williams (promptly signed him to a five-year extension worth $45M with $20M guaranteed)
+
2010 7th rounder

Lions received:

2009 1st rounder (Brandon Pettigrew), 3rd rounder, and 6th rounder

Somehow the Cowboys thought Roy Williams was worth a first round pick.... Let's see two other interesting WR trades since....

Brandon Marshall to Miami for 2010 2nd rounder + a 2011 2nd rounder. Marshall also signed a four-year, $47M extension with Miami.

Santonio Holmes (who was ineligible for the first 4 games of 2010) goes to the Jets for a 5th round pick in what might go down as the biggest trade steals of all-time.

Compare those two deals for two top flight receivers with the one the Cowboys made for a mid-level WR in Roy Williams. Got to love seeing Jerry Jones screw up so badly, I want to say it gets old after a while, but it really doesn't.