We're All Ravens Fans Tonight

Vegas just saw this and the line on this game went from Ravens -10 to Ravens -1,000. If the Jaguars win this game this will be the biggest upset in sports history. Wouldn't be shocked if Blaine Gabbert refuses to go out on the field and you know what? I wouldn't blame him. If I had more money I would bet it all on the Ravens right now, Ray Lewis just made me feel so comfortable about my bet on them tonight. And makes me feel real good about his influential speech influencing Ray Rice to have a monster game. I need just 12 points out of him to win my fantasy week, and now I'm pretty much guaranteed victory at this point right? Might as well not even watch this game and do something more productive with my time right? Nah fuck that, I just had a root canal (which I don't know what the big deal is) so I'm just going to eat some fresh mooz and drink some beers while I watch the last form of legalized rape while Ray Lewis humps Blaine Gabbert to death up and down the field. Let's fucking go RAVENS!!!! Plus if you don't root for the Ravens I'm pretty sure Ray Lewis will murder your ass.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 7 LOCKS (Swag)

Last week was my first losing week of the season, went 1-2 (1-3-1 including the honorable mention games) so that drops my overall record to 11-6-1 (12-8-2 with honorable mentions) - okay I'm just calling them wild card picks now - so with wild cards included I'm 12-8-2, not awful but okay. So this week I actually have been monitoring a lot of the spreads due to the shake up around the league with some last minute trades. Some of them are moving in a favorable direction that I like, so here we go - rebound time:

Carolina -1 - This isn't so much about betting on the Panthers as it is going against the Redskins and their problems. I think the Redskins have a pretty good defense but I can't see them doing much of anything on the other side of the ball. It's the first time I've seen Carolina favored, so will be interesting to see how they play, but I'm sure they'll still feel like they're in the underdog role. Cam Newton had a rough game last week, but a tipped pass going his way instead of the Falcons and that game could've been completely different. I like Newton in this one, and I'll say he throws for one TD and runs for another two. He'll have to take this game over. Panthers 27, Redskins 23.

Seahawks +3 - Don't know why but I like the Seahawks here. They have the #1 rush defense in the league and they're opponent is a banged up Peyton Hillis who has struggled to get anything going this year. He doesn't have much of a chance to change that against this front. Seattle showed a spark with Viggo Mortensen here under center, so I like what they can do against Cleveland. Watch out for Doug Baldwin as he continues to impress. Seattle 23, Cleveland 16.



Ravens -8 - I don't like a veteran quarterback against the Ravens, so I obviously hate Blaine Gabbert against the Ravens. Each year we see a rookie get slaughtered by this defense and there's really no reason to think Gabbert won't have trouble. MJD will be the only one the Ravens prepare for, he will be quiet all game long and they'll force Gabbert to attempt to try and get a first down. I honestly think first downs will be an issue for Jacksonville, I see only FG's if anything at all. Flacco and Rice have been pretty much fantastic all season, I don't see it letting up on Monday Night Football. This game will get ugly quick for Blaine Gabbert. Ravens 31, Jaguars 6.

2011 Record: 11-6-1, WC 1-2-1 (12-8-2)

Wild Card games:

Indianapolis +15.5, Denver +1

Indianapolis hasn't played all that bad in their last couple games. Painter is continuing to look impressive each time out as he keeps improving. He's protecting the ball well and he's got a couple RB's at his disposal. They also have Peyton's old weapons - Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. If he can get the ball in their hands they can keep this game close. The Saints have been playing down to their competition all season, I can't see them turning it on all of a sudden for the winless Colts.

Denver has a lot going on, all eyes will be on Tim Tebow. He's starting IN FLORIDA to face the winless Dolphins. When was the last time an 0-5 team was favored? Tebow plays like an absolute champion even though everyone thinks he sucks, he still gets shit done. Now he'll be home in Florida where everyone worships him, he'll have another Tebow moment in his career and probably account for 5 TD's. Guy will have extremely high motivation and adrenaline, I see him having a huge game because he plays by far his best under extreme amounts of pressure.

Week 5 Football Bets Which I Can Favorably Predict

With Swag and Spich making weekly picks, it seemed about time that I threw my hat in the ring.  So why not start with some controversy and pick against Swag in my first offering:

JAGS -2.5 over the Bengals

True, Jags got owned by the Jets a few weeks ago and looked like pretty much the worst team to ever play football.  That was before the Blaine Gabbert era.  His first full game was in a monsoon and they looked pretty decent against the Saints last week, a much better team than the Bengals.  The Bengals already lost to Denver, possibly the least talented team in the NFL.  And they managed an inspiring 8 points against San Francisco.  They did knock off the undefeated Bills, but at this point who can even determine if the Bills are really any good.  Gabbert is only going to get better as he learns the offense and how to be a professional.  Jags win by a TD

Chargers -4 over BRONCOS

Speaking of the least talented team in the NFL, I just don't see Kyle Orton being able to compete with this guy.  The Chargers are an absolute top 10 team in the league.  I don't care if this game is at elevation 1 trazillion feet.  Vincent Jackson is probable.  Ryan Matthews is catching fire.  Malcom Flloyd is healthy.  This game has the makings of a blow out.  When your starting running back loses his job to Willis McGahee, you know it is going to be a long season.  Chargers by 13.


Cardinals +2.5 over VIKINGS

Donovan McNabb is just bad.  That's all there is to it.  How a quarterback leads a team that is 3rd overall in rushing but 24th overall in point scoring without being crucified by the media is beyond me.  How many more weapons does Donovan have to get before we can all admit that he just doesn't have it anymore.  He's a play maker who is too old to make plays.  At this point AP probably just wants to throw the passes too.  The Cardinals almost beat the Giants last week and have suffered some pretty excruciating losses.  They are 0-3 and their losses are by a combined 8 points.  You know they are coming out gunning for that first win.  Larry Fitz is back to being Larry Fitz now that the Cardinals abandoned the open try out for quarterback that was the 2010 season.  Beanie Wells got three touches on the board last week.  They look a little week on pass defense but the shouldn't be much of a problem with Father Time taking snaps for the Vikes.  Cards by 9.


There you have it folks.  Don't say I didn't warn you.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 5 LOCKS

Had a good week last week even if I threw in a weird call about the Dolphins, didn't feel like going 3-0 obviously - when shit gets too easy I tend to lose my interest so I was just keeping myself on my toes. Couple games I really like this week so let's get right to it:

Bengals +2.5 - Not sure I completely understand this spread.. Basically saying the Bengals are just a half point better than Jacksonville.... I actually respect the Bengals who have been playing pretty good this season, and I think the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the NFL. If not for MJD they're right in the thick of the Andrew Luck race that has taken over the bottom of the NFL ranks. Apparently they don't need him because they have Sunshine at QB but I guess they don't notice he's not going to do much for them this year. The Bengals held Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to only 78 yards last week in a big win over the Bills, I see them handling MJD long enough to get themselves in position to win this game. I like the Bengals S/U so them getting points is music to these ears. Bengals by 10.



Giants -9.5 - I've said before I normally try and stay away from large spreads like this (that's what she said) but this includes a west coast team traveling east. On top of that they play the early game on Sunday. That's just pure hell. On top of that, it's the Seattle Seahawks. That's hell inside of hell. Add to that Tarvaris Jackson is the QB - Can this get any worse? Yes.... Then add to that the fact that the Seahawks are 13-32 ATS on the road since 2006. That's what I love to call a LOCK! Only thing that scares me, Tuck and Jacobs likely not to play - what helps me rest easy is I actually like DJ Ware and hope he gets a lot of touches behind Bradshaw in this game. I like Eli staying hot and going for 275 yards, couple scores and they win it 31-13.



"Yeah keep that helmet on 'cause I just embarrassed you, bro!"



Packers -6 - I just used the word bro because I feel like Aaron Rodgers would say that, anyway.... Is this a joke?? The Packers by 6? Um did anyone see what happened last year when these two met in the playoffs? 48-21, the Packers raped the Falcons when the Falcons were the #1 team in the NFC. Newsflash bro, Packers are 10x healthier and 100x better. Falcons fucking suck. There's just no reason this spread isn't -100. If the Packers play 50% they should cover this, and as long as Devin Hester isn't around to completely juke the shit out of their entire special teams unit, they should be fine. Packers 30-15 ATS on the road under McCarthy? Okay, Rodgers goes for 325 and 3 TD's and Packers get the W by two scores. Clay Matthews two sacks and a forced fumble and/or fumble recovery.

*Honorable mentions: Raiders +6 @ Texans, Titans +3.5 @ Steelers

2011 Record: 8-3-1

*Not going to do this every week but those are two more games I'm thinking about getting involved with this weekend.

Houston is looking good, but looked shaky without Andre Johnson in the second half of that Steelers game and they'll be without him for 3-4 weeks. I love DMC and think he's the best RB in this game. He will get a ton of touches which will result in a ton of yards. He will single handedly keep the Raiders close, if Jason Campbell can be mistake free they'll have a chance to steal one in Houston.

Steelers on the other hand, look like shit and there QB was in a boot all week - he'll be behind a terrible offensive line and going against a defense who can get hits on the QB. They're also 25th in the league against the run believe it or not and Chris Johnson is coming to town off of his first 100 yard game of the season and is looking to keep it going. That should help the already surprising Matt Hasselbeck be more comfortable in the pocket against a Steelers team who is unusually struggling getting to the QB this year. Outside of their Seahawks blowout, they have 2 sacks this year. Nuts. I like both these games but the other three jumped out a little bit more to me. Consider these as well... At your own risk.

Am I Good Or Am I Good? Week 4 Edition


Another big week for me as I improve to 8-3-1 this season with my LOCK picks. Most of the games Sunday went do to the last second to see if teams would cover the spreads, but for me I hit 2 out of 3 for the third week in a row. Props go out to Mike who hit all three of his picks to turn around a slow first couple of weeks. Even better, he took two extra games over on TheSportsBanter and hit those as well for a perfect 5-0 week! Nothing worse than when your birthday lands on a Monday, but going 5-0 helps, congrats.

On to the part where I show off:

What I said about the Lions/Cowboys game: Romo is still not 100% which means he's got an even better shot at making "I wish I was Brett Favre" throws and getting picked off. I think Calvin Johnson continues on his pace to score 94 TD's and the Lions win by a touchdown in Dallas.

Not sure if I could've been more accurate on this one. Cowboys were up 24 and Romo tries to imitate Brett Favre, throws 3 INT's and two of them are brought back to the house on consecutive possessions. Calvin Johnson catches two more TD's late, continues his monster pace. Lions win by 4.

Prediction: Romo gets picked off, Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by a TD. Actual: Romo gets picked 3 times, two for scores - Johnson scores multiple TD's, Lions win by 4.

What I said about the Saints/Jaguars game: I don't understand this spread. Colston coming back this week, against the Blaine Gabbert led Jacksonville Jaguars. 7 points? Jax needs at least 21 to start, right? Brees and the Saints just put up 40 and outscored Matt Schaub and the Texans by 7. You really think the Jaguars are keeping pace with the Saints? Unless MJD is running, throwing, and catching all over the field then there's no chance in hell this game is within 14 points. This is an absolute lock.

Brees throws for a season high with 351 yards, but only throws 1 TD and was picked off twice. Not ideal. But the Saints were still able to take care of business and win it by 13. MJD only got 11 carries and Gabbert couldn't do much in his 2nd career start. MJD needed to be more involved if they wanted a chance, but they kept it closer than it should have been. I had to check the box score, and yeah Colston was back, 1 catch 8 yards.

Prediction: New Orleans by 14 easily. Actual: New Orleans by 13, and it was a struggle.

What I said about the Dolphins/Chargers game: I don't like the Chargers. I said it. They don't have Gates healthy, they haven't been able to find a rhythm offensively and I hate their defense. They're notoriously a terrible first half team, and they almost lost to the Kansas City Chiefs last week as 14 point favorites. I think this game stays close and will be decided by a FG.

Even after I posted this I admitted this was a reach, and no where near a lock. But I felt confident the Chargers wouldn't cover just by looking at recent history. Norv Turner can never seem to get his team going before November and December. This game was actually close throughout and was 13-10 at the half. I was feeling good at that point, but then it turned into the Dan Carpenter show - Miami could not move the football past the 20 yard line. Can't even say their Red Zone offense was bad because it couldn't get there. As they kicked FG's the Chargers matched along with a TD to cover the spread.

Prediction: Game stays close and is decided by a FG. Actual: Game stayed close, then it didn't, Chargers by 10.

Luke McCown Had A Good Game - If A QB Rating Of 1.8 Is Good

You gotta feel for Luke McCown here. Probably did nothing this offseason, just kind of lounged around and drank some beers. Typical offseason for a 33-year old back up QB with no chance of seeing the field. When the guy in front of you was given a contract extension through 2014 worth $60 million, you probably don't expect to contribute much to the team. Then all of a sudden when the team inexplicably cuts him a week before the season, the career 2-7 starter who hasn't started an NFL game in 4 years is thrust into the role. "Fuck me" must've been all that went through McCown's mind. I'm sure he went straight to their GM asking "Wait so you're not going out and signing anyone else?? So you're really going to make me start.... Okay, you sure you wanna do this?? Alright, I'll do what I can, don't really remember how to play QB but I'll try."

Seriously, once it was 29-3 in the 3rd quarter, why did they put him back out on the field? I honestly felt bad for him. I don't know how a Pro-Bowl 33-year old starter was cut in favor of an out of shape 33-year old who literally can't play the position. Just an embarrassing move by the Jags here. Blaine Gabbert should've been in the game a lot earlier. Not to mention Luke completely ruined my chances of winning my fantasy week by handing the Jets turnover after turnover while adding a safety to the mix. Thanks a lot dick.

Ouch.



Week 2: Stone Cold Locks

After an ugly Week One (0-2-1), I'm trying to get back on the right track.

Jaguars +9: The Jets looked shaky at home in Week 1, albeit against an opponent that will make the playoffs when all is said and done. Somehow, the Jags were able to beat the Titans with Luke McCown at the helm. Their D looked solid, and MJD looked healthy. This Jets team is going to win a lot of defensive battles, and I think this one stays close throughout.

Colts +2.5: The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game. The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game. The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game. The Cleveland Browns are road favorites in this game.

Bengals +4: The Bengals proved last week they won’t be intimidated on the road against teams that absolutely suck. Cedric Benson’s line on Sunday will probably look something like this: 44 carries, 98 yards, 2 touchdowns. It’s never pretty when we are talking about the Bengals, but against the Broncos, you don’t need much to win.

Speaking of not pretty, the Bengals starting tandem of Benson and QB Andy Dalton has to rank second on the ugliest backfield list (behind Marshawn Lynch + any QB in the league).

Lynch and Benson: neither models, nor model citizens.

Week 1: Stone Cold Locks

Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and I encourage anyone to debate me on that statement. If your quarterback is bad, your team will not be good. Guaranteed. My stone cold locks of the week are wagers against terrible quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Cam Newton (might turn out to be good eventually but right now, he's not), and Luke McCown. At any point, these three can turn a victory into defeat, and I eagerly anticipate rooting against them.

Seahawks +5 - The 49ers are an awful team. I'm about 78% sure they tank the season in hopes of getting Andrew Luck in next year's draft, reuniting him with his college coach Jim Harbaugh. With the talent they have right now, they should not be favored against any team in the league aside from the Panthers. Take the points, and thank me later.

Ricky's Take: I actually like the 49ers, maybe not to win the Super Bowl, but I think they're in contention to win their division (so is the JV team from my town). But if we're going to talk about QB being an important position, Seattle is in the same boat as the 49ers. Tavaris Jackson? What's he going to do without Adrian Peterson? And Sydney Rice not able to play this week? I also love San Fran's defense, think they have a much more solid running game. I just don't see this as a LOCK, I like SF to win.


Pick-6 specialist, Alex Smith

Cardinals -7 - The Kevin Kolb era starts with a bang against a team that will be lucky to win three games this year. Am I the biggest Kolb fan? No, but he's a major upgrade over the triumvarate of crap that spewed under center last season. No one will be clamoring for the Hall-Skelton-Anderson platoon any time soon...except maybe 49ers fans once they watch Alex Smith for a few weeks.

Ricky's Take: I agree. I like the fact we have three different choices, but this could've been one for me also. Carolina resigned their entire team this offseason for about $490 million dollars so they're pretty much screwed since they're still in the same spot as they were as the 2-14 team last year. Arizona got better, and they still have Larry Fitzgerald, game over.

Titans +1.5 - Releasing your starting quarterback four days before Week 1 makes less sense than me trying to make it as a model: none. (And you are welcome for that terrible image you now have in your head.) Luke McCown has thrown nine touchdown passes in seven seasons. Yup, you are in safe hands Jacksonville. Tennessee actually has a decent quarterback this year too, and they broke the bank to get Chris Johnson signed. If this game was being played in Nashville, the Titans would be favored without a doubt. Their is no home-field advantage when your stadium isn't close to being sold out. I trust in Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans.

Ricky's Take: Kind of can't believe the Titans are underdogs in this game, kind of wish I took this one. Chris Johnson will have a monster day, Hasselbeck will manage a good game. I do like MJD and the chip on his mini shoulder, but that won't be enough to win this game. Titans win by a TD or more.


Ricky Agrees: 2 out of 3