Week 7 NFL Picks

1-3 on the regular picks, but hitting my 3rd Wild Card of the season helped, especially since the other guys hit their WC's as well. I need to start making good picks, starting to wonder what the hell is going on right now.. Might be up near the top in points which is important, but my record looks absolutely terrible. Not up to my standards.

Dallas -1 @ Carolina: This spread jumped out to me before any other spread. Dallas just went into Baltimore, where Baltimore simply does not lose, and they took them down to the last seconds. It's a game they actually should've won. And they're only a 1 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers? What am I missing here? I don't particularly love Tony Romo, but without DeMarco Murray and having to use a pass catching back in Felix Jones, he should be throwing all day and should burn this Panthers secondary which employs a couple of the worst safeties in the league.
(Source: BETON)

New Orleans -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - The record might not be there, but the Saints are still a dangerous team in desperate need for wins. We might assume they're out of the playoffs, but there's no way Drew Brees thinks they are, and he'll have them going coming out of the Bye Week. Absolutely no way the Saints are only a point better than the Bucs and I don't give a shit where the field is that they're playing on. 1 point should be an embarrassment. The defense also looks a lot better with more time under DC Steve Spagnuolo - Keep in mind it took the 2007 Giants a few games to adjust to him in his first couple of weeks on the job and they ended up leading the league in sacks and beating the 18-0 Patriots and one of the best offenses in history in the Super Bowl. Safe to say I have some faith in them. And their defensive captain should be back this week as well. Although dating back to 2008, this series is at 4-4 and I hate the Saints on the road, but two of those wins came @ Tampa Bay plus there's just too much good that has to be coming after all the bad the Saints have endured to start this season. UPDATE: Line was -1 yesterday when I wrote this, but to be fair I'm posting today and the line has moved to -2.5
(Source: 5dimes)

Seattle +7 @ San Francisco - I'm sure the Seahawks already watched the Giants/49ers game tape from this past Sunday, and I'm pretty sure the Seahawks defense is drooling. If the 49ers "vaunted" offensive line couldn't move the ball against the NY Giants, then sledding will be even tougher against the Seahawks. Here's some stats for you: Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 70 YPG. They're also 5th in the league with 17 sacks which will be tough to deal with without All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley who will be out with a concussion. Most impressive for me? They're 2nd in the NFL in PPG after going up against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo. All 4 QB's were in the Pro-Bowl last season, one happened to be the MVP of the league. Pretty sure Alex Smith is going to do nothing against this secondary which I think might just be the best in the NFL.
(Source: 5dimes)


Wild Card

Detroit +7 @ Chicago - In the wake of my Jay Cutler is terrible in primetime post, did you expect anything else?
(Source: 5dimes)

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 13 LOCKS

First of all, I can't believe it's week 13 already - shit is flying by.... As Darren McFadden sits on the bench... Things have slowed down after a blazing hot start for me, but things could be worse and I could pick like Mike so things are still looking up.. We all had good weeks last week, but this week I feel a little stronger about some games than others, I like what's on tap this weekend:




If that's not the greatest picture in sports I don't know what is.

Seattle +3 - The Eagles are coming off a fucking embarrassing rout at home against the Patriots. They were up 10-0 and still managed to lose 38-20. They looked lost on defense and had no idea what to do on offense but throw the ball up for grabs. Desean Jackson is busy getting benched on a weekly basis, Rogers-Cromartie, Maclin and Vick are out and now Nnamdi Asomugha and LeSean McCoy are questionable. I just don't see a team getting up after a demoralizing loss to go cross country to play the Seahawks without half of their starters.

RODGGGGAAAAS! DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!!

Green Bay -6.5 - Look, I'm a die hard Giants fan. Even I can't understand how this spread is closing and getting smaller. The fact it's not two touchdowns is blowing my mind. Aaron Rodgers is going to discount double check all over this spread, he barely throws incompletions let alone INT's and the Giants only weapon is their missing pass rush which I saw on a milk carton last week. They're starting 6th round draft picks and undrafted FA's at linebacker, so expect Jermichael Finley to have a huge day over the middle and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to be running free across the middle all day. Not sure how the Giants figure out how to slow this offense down, let alone stop them.

Arizona +4.5 - This is just going off of recent performances. In Dallas' last five games, they're 1-4 ATS - eeking out victories against Washington (OT) and Miami at home by 1 point. Arizona on the other hand is 4-1 in their last five, beating Philly on the road and narrowly missing a win AT Baltimore. They have a solid run defense which will be tough for DeMarco Murray to navigate and John Skelton is figuring out all he has to do is throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald who should smoke Dallas' below average secondary.

2011 Record: 19-15-2 (WC 5-11)

Wild Card Picks

Carolina +3 - Okay, I feel like we do this literally every single week. This is a game I feel Carolina will win straight up so even if they don't, Mr. Cover All The Time will make things happen.

Kansas City +8 - Look I know I consistently go against the Bears, but even WITH Jay Cutler, how is the spread this high? They have Caleb Hanie behind center. I also think the addition of Kyle Orton will help Kansas City decipher some of Chicago's calls - Ala Kevin Kolb in Philadelphia. There's just nothing to like about this game, two backup QB's going after it, but I like KC's pass rush - if they can keep a game close against Pittsburgh they can definitely keep it close against Chicago with Hanie back there.

In Depth Recap Of The Seahawks/Browns Game

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 7 LOCKS (Swag)

Last week was my first losing week of the season, went 1-2 (1-3-1 including the honorable mention games) so that drops my overall record to 11-6-1 (12-8-2 with honorable mentions) - okay I'm just calling them wild card picks now - so with wild cards included I'm 12-8-2, not awful but okay. So this week I actually have been monitoring a lot of the spreads due to the shake up around the league with some last minute trades. Some of them are moving in a favorable direction that I like, so here we go - rebound time:

Carolina -1 - This isn't so much about betting on the Panthers as it is going against the Redskins and their problems. I think the Redskins have a pretty good defense but I can't see them doing much of anything on the other side of the ball. It's the first time I've seen Carolina favored, so will be interesting to see how they play, but I'm sure they'll still feel like they're in the underdog role. Cam Newton had a rough game last week, but a tipped pass going his way instead of the Falcons and that game could've been completely different. I like Newton in this one, and I'll say he throws for one TD and runs for another two. He'll have to take this game over. Panthers 27, Redskins 23.

Seahawks +3 - Don't know why but I like the Seahawks here. They have the #1 rush defense in the league and they're opponent is a banged up Peyton Hillis who has struggled to get anything going this year. He doesn't have much of a chance to change that against this front. Seattle showed a spark with Viggo Mortensen here under center, so I like what they can do against Cleveland. Watch out for Doug Baldwin as he continues to impress. Seattle 23, Cleveland 16.



Ravens -8 - I don't like a veteran quarterback against the Ravens, so I obviously hate Blaine Gabbert against the Ravens. Each year we see a rookie get slaughtered by this defense and there's really no reason to think Gabbert won't have trouble. MJD will be the only one the Ravens prepare for, he will be quiet all game long and they'll force Gabbert to attempt to try and get a first down. I honestly think first downs will be an issue for Jacksonville, I see only FG's if anything at all. Flacco and Rice have been pretty much fantastic all season, I don't see it letting up on Monday Night Football. This game will get ugly quick for Blaine Gabbert. Ravens 31, Jaguars 6.

2011 Record: 11-6-1, WC 1-2-1 (12-8-2)

Wild Card games:

Indianapolis +15.5, Denver +1

Indianapolis hasn't played all that bad in their last couple games. Painter is continuing to look impressive each time out as he keeps improving. He's protecting the ball well and he's got a couple RB's at his disposal. They also have Peyton's old weapons - Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. If he can get the ball in their hands they can keep this game close. The Saints have been playing down to their competition all season, I can't see them turning it on all of a sudden for the winless Colts.

Denver has a lot going on, all eyes will be on Tim Tebow. He's starting IN FLORIDA to face the winless Dolphins. When was the last time an 0-5 team was favored? Tebow plays like an absolute champion even though everyone thinks he sucks, he still gets shit done. Now he'll be home in Florida where everyone worships him, he'll have another Tebow moment in his career and probably account for 5 TD's. Guy will have extremely high motivation and adrenaline, I see him having a huge game because he plays by far his best under extreme amounts of pressure.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 5 LOCKS

Had a good week last week even if I threw in a weird call about the Dolphins, didn't feel like going 3-0 obviously - when shit gets too easy I tend to lose my interest so I was just keeping myself on my toes. Couple games I really like this week so let's get right to it:

Bengals +2.5 - Not sure I completely understand this spread.. Basically saying the Bengals are just a half point better than Jacksonville.... I actually respect the Bengals who have been playing pretty good this season, and I think the Jags might be one of the worst teams in the NFL. If not for MJD they're right in the thick of the Andrew Luck race that has taken over the bottom of the NFL ranks. Apparently they don't need him because they have Sunshine at QB but I guess they don't notice he's not going to do much for them this year. The Bengals held Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller to only 78 yards last week in a big win over the Bills, I see them handling MJD long enough to get themselves in position to win this game. I like the Bengals S/U so them getting points is music to these ears. Bengals by 10.



Giants -9.5 - I've said before I normally try and stay away from large spreads like this (that's what she said) but this includes a west coast team traveling east. On top of that they play the early game on Sunday. That's just pure hell. On top of that, it's the Seattle Seahawks. That's hell inside of hell. Add to that Tarvaris Jackson is the QB - Can this get any worse? Yes.... Then add to that the fact that the Seahawks are 13-32 ATS on the road since 2006. That's what I love to call a LOCK! Only thing that scares me, Tuck and Jacobs likely not to play - what helps me rest easy is I actually like DJ Ware and hope he gets a lot of touches behind Bradshaw in this game. I like Eli staying hot and going for 275 yards, couple scores and they win it 31-13.



"Yeah keep that helmet on 'cause I just embarrassed you, bro!"



Packers -6 - I just used the word bro because I feel like Aaron Rodgers would say that, anyway.... Is this a joke?? The Packers by 6? Um did anyone see what happened last year when these two met in the playoffs? 48-21, the Packers raped the Falcons when the Falcons were the #1 team in the NFC. Newsflash bro, Packers are 10x healthier and 100x better. Falcons fucking suck. There's just no reason this spread isn't -100. If the Packers play 50% they should cover this, and as long as Devin Hester isn't around to completely juke the shit out of their entire special teams unit, they should be fine. Packers 30-15 ATS on the road under McCarthy? Okay, Rodgers goes for 325 and 3 TD's and Packers get the W by two scores. Clay Matthews two sacks and a forced fumble and/or fumble recovery.

*Honorable mentions: Raiders +6 @ Texans, Titans +3.5 @ Steelers

2011 Record: 8-3-1

*Not going to do this every week but those are two more games I'm thinking about getting involved with this weekend.

Houston is looking good, but looked shaky without Andre Johnson in the second half of that Steelers game and they'll be without him for 3-4 weeks. I love DMC and think he's the best RB in this game. He will get a ton of touches which will result in a ton of yards. He will single handedly keep the Raiders close, if Jason Campbell can be mistake free they'll have a chance to steal one in Houston.

Steelers on the other hand, look like shit and there QB was in a boot all week - he'll be behind a terrible offensive line and going against a defense who can get hits on the QB. They're also 25th in the league against the run believe it or not and Chris Johnson is coming to town off of his first 100 yard game of the season and is looking to keep it going. That should help the already surprising Matt Hasselbeck be more comfortable in the pocket against a Steelers team who is unusually struggling getting to the QB this year. Outside of their Seahawks blowout, they have 2 sacks this year. Nuts. I like both these games but the other three jumped out a little bit more to me. Consider these as well... At your own risk.

Week 3: Tissue Paper Soft Picks

I'm 1-4-1 through six games. Flat out awful. Maybe, I'm overthinking these games. So, I'm going with a less-is-more strategy: twitter-style picks.

Falcons +1.5: Both teams are riding high after big wins last week, but Atlanta beat a great team while Tampa Bay beat the Vikings. I think Michael Turner will have a big day.

Raiders +3.5: Love the Jets, but hate the idea of them being road favorites on the West Coast.

Seahawks +3.5: Seattle is terrible, but this is their home opener, and I think they'll have some extra motivation in front of their fans. 12th man makes the difference here.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 2 LOCKS

The Chiefs fucked me so bad last week I should get 2 losses, but I don't HA - So I went 2-1 last week. I'll take that on my LOCKS. Now time to look at some Week 2 LOCKS! WOOOOO!

Oakland +3

I have no idea how Buffalo wins one game and now they're favorites? When was the last time they were favorites in a game? Hosting a team that just worked a division opponent on the road. Darren McFadden is going to run wild on the Bills, it's going to be epic. I say he goes over 150, at least 2 touches. Since I have Michael Bush on my fantasy team he obviously isn't going to do shit, it will be DMC all day err day. Raiders pass D is a lot better than the Chiefs, and Fitzpatrick comes back to earth this Sunday.

New England -7

Philip Rivers can't beat the Patriots, just can't do it. Including postseason he's 1-4 with a 78.4 rating against them. Plus, did anyone else catch a pass from Tom Brady last weekend? Guy just told all of New England to show up hammered drunk and rowdy as shit for their home opener. With that going on behind him, he might put up 600 yards and Gronk will have 2 scores. This will be a barn burner but New England will put up most of those points.

Pittsburgh -14

I usually stay away from spreads this big, that's what she said, but Pitt is coming off an embarrassing loss to Baltimore last week in which they made 7 turnovers and Hines Ward got fucking laid out. You don't think they're going to come out a little pissed off?? Seattle is still rebuilding and they have no idea what they're walking into at Heinz field. Crowd will be nuts and the Steelers will be fired up. This should be a blowout.

Week 1: Stone Cold Locks

Quarterback is the most important position in all of team sports, and I encourage anyone to debate me on that statement. If your quarterback is bad, your team will not be good. Guaranteed. My stone cold locks of the week are wagers against terrible quarterbacks: Alex Smith, Cam Newton (might turn out to be good eventually but right now, he's not), and Luke McCown. At any point, these three can turn a victory into defeat, and I eagerly anticipate rooting against them.

Seahawks +5 - The 49ers are an awful team. I'm about 78% sure they tank the season in hopes of getting Andrew Luck in next year's draft, reuniting him with his college coach Jim Harbaugh. With the talent they have right now, they should not be favored against any team in the league aside from the Panthers. Take the points, and thank me later.

Ricky's Take: I actually like the 49ers, maybe not to win the Super Bowl, but I think they're in contention to win their division (so is the JV team from my town). But if we're going to talk about QB being an important position, Seattle is in the same boat as the 49ers. Tavaris Jackson? What's he going to do without Adrian Peterson? And Sydney Rice not able to play this week? I also love San Fran's defense, think they have a much more solid running game. I just don't see this as a LOCK, I like SF to win.


Pick-6 specialist, Alex Smith

Cardinals -7 - The Kevin Kolb era starts with a bang against a team that will be lucky to win three games this year. Am I the biggest Kolb fan? No, but he's a major upgrade over the triumvarate of crap that spewed under center last season. No one will be clamoring for the Hall-Skelton-Anderson platoon any time soon...except maybe 49ers fans once they watch Alex Smith for a few weeks.

Ricky's Take: I agree. I like the fact we have three different choices, but this could've been one for me also. Carolina resigned their entire team this offseason for about $490 million dollars so they're pretty much screwed since they're still in the same spot as they were as the 2-14 team last year. Arizona got better, and they still have Larry Fitzgerald, game over.

Titans +1.5 - Releasing your starting quarterback four days before Week 1 makes less sense than me trying to make it as a model: none. (And you are welcome for that terrible image you now have in your head.) Luke McCown has thrown nine touchdown passes in seven seasons. Yup, you are in safe hands Jacksonville. Tennessee actually has a decent quarterback this year too, and they broke the bank to get Chris Johnson signed. If this game was being played in Nashville, the Titans would be favored without a doubt. Their is no home-field advantage when your stadium isn't close to being sold out. I trust in Matt Hasselbeck and the Titans.

Ricky's Take: Kind of can't believe the Titans are underdogs in this game, kind of wish I took this one. Chris Johnson will have a monster day, Hasselbeck will manage a good game. I do like MJD and the chip on his mini shoulder, but that won't be enough to win this game. Titans win by a TD or more.


Ricky Agrees: 2 out of 3