Dallas -1 @ Carolina: This spread jumped out to me before any other spread. Dallas just went into Baltimore, where Baltimore simply does not lose, and they took them down to the last seconds. It's a game they actually should've won. And they're only a 1 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers? What am I missing here? I don't particularly love Tony Romo, but without DeMarco Murray and having to use a pass catching back in Felix Jones, he should be throwing all day and should burn this Panthers secondary which employs a couple of the worst safeties in the league.
New Orleans -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - The record might not be there, but the Saints are still a dangerous team in desperate need for wins. We might assume they're out of the playoffs, but there's no way Drew Brees thinks they are, and he'll have them going coming out of the Bye Week. Absolutely no way the Saints are only a point better than the Bucs and I don't give a shit where the field is that they're playing on. 1 point should be an embarrassment. The defense also looks a lot better with more time under DC Steve Spagnuolo - Keep in mind it took the 2007 Giants a few games to adjust to him in his first couple of weeks on the job and they ended up leading the league in sacks and beating the 18-0 Patriots and one of the best offenses in history in the Super Bowl. Safe to say I have some faith in them. And their defensive captain should be back this week as well. Although dating back to 2008, this series is at 4-4 and I hate the Saints on the road, but two of those wins came @ Tampa Bay plus there's just too much good that has to be coming after all the bad the Saints have endured to start this season. UPDATE: Line was -1 yesterday when I wrote this, but to be fair I'm posting today and the line has moved to -2.5
Seattle +7 @ San Francisco - I'm sure the Seahawks already watched the Giants/49ers game tape from this past Sunday, and I'm pretty sure the Seahawks defense is drooling. If the 49ers "vaunted" offensive line couldn't move the ball against the NY Giants, then sledding will be even tougher against the Seahawks. Here's some stats for you: Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 70 YPG. They're also 5th in the league with 17 sacks which will be tough to deal with without All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley who will be out with a concussion. Most impressive for me? They're 2nd in the NFL in PPG after going up against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo. All 4 QB's were in the Pro-Bowl last season, one happened to be the MVP of the league. Pretty sure Alex Smith is going to do nothing against this secondary which I think might just be the best in the NFL.
Detroit +7 @ Chicago - In the wake of my Jay Cutler is terrible in primetime post, did you expect anything else?