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Thursday, October 25, 2012

Week 8 Action

NFL

Straight
  • NYG/DAL
    • Over 47.5
      • 28 to win 25  (W)
  • SF/ARI
    • Under 38
      • 28 to win 25  (W)
  • MIA/NYJ
    • Under 38.5
      • 28 to win 25  (L)
Parlay
  • NYG -1 (at DAL), NE -6.5 (in London playing STL), NO +6 (at DEN)
    • 25 to win 150  (L)

College

Teaser

  • USC +3.5, Ohio St. +9, Florida/Georgia Under 56
    • 30 to win 25 (W)


Why Not Picks (SportsBook.com)

Playing the sports lottery, well, all of them except the first one... Oh and these do NOT count against my season record, strictly fun and insane picks that will never hopefully all hit. These are usually all $10 or under
  • Teaser: OAK +12 (at KC), NO +16 (at DEN), SEA +13 (at DET)
    • 5 to win 4.17 (Hit the wrong button, complete mistake but I'll take the 4.17 if it hits)

  • Parlay: MIN -6.5 (vs TB), NYG -1.5 (at DAL), NE -7 ("at" STL), NO +6 (at DEN)
    • 5 to win 64.58

  • Parlay: SF (at ARZ), MIN (vs TB), SD (at CLE), ATL (at PHI), NYG -1.5 (at DAL), NE ("at" STL), OAK (at KC), PIT (vs WAS), NO +6 (at DEN)
    • 5 to win 485.41

  • Parlay: Nebraska -2.5 (vs Michigan), Wisconsin -6 (vs Mich. St.), Alabama -24 (vs Miss. St.), Oklahoma -10 (vs ND), S.Carolina -14 (vs Tennessee), Kansas St. -7 (vs Texas Tech)
    • 10 to win 464.10
  • Parlay: MIA (at NYJ), ATL (at PHI), NYG -2.5 (at DAL), NO (at DEN), SEA (at DET)
    • 5 to win 298.57 


Week 1: +50
Week 2: -1 (+49)
Week 3: +199 (+248)
Week 4: +140 (+388)
Week 5: -530 (-142)
Week 6: -99 (-241)
Week 7: +108 (-133)


2012
NFL: 15-16 (-18)
CFB: 3-4 (-115)

Friday, October 19, 2012

Week 7 Action

So last week wasn't a total failure, but it wasn't pretty. The NFL bets look absolutely atrocious at 2-5, but were extremely close to hitting outside of a couple freak plays that didn't let it happen. I can live with that, it's not like they were blowouts (outside of the Indy game).

I was dead on with the Bills all day, and the Ravens as well. Then the Ravens blew their lead and my parlay by winning by 2 instead of 3. That's actually Dez Bryant's fault, he dropped a would-be 2 point conversion to tie the game and send it to OT where Baltimore easily could've won by 3 or more and gotten me points. Instead they win by 2 points and I lose my parlay with Buffalo.

Notre Dame cost me a big payout by pushing ATS when they beat Stanford by 7 points. I'm grateful they pushed instead of lost obviously, but that push instead of a W there cost me $80 off the payout.

My most confident play was the teaser that included the Giants, Bills and Vikings. The Vikings failed to show up and then collapsed late in the game when Washington and RGIII opened up a big lead. I needed them to cover 8.5 points and they got it to within 12. With 30 seconds left, they were knocking on the goal line and Christian Ponder threw a blind rainbow into the end-zone where there were absolutely zero Vikings and it was picked off. A garbage time touchdown there wins me $100. Instead it cost me $120. That was the one play that absolutely buried me this past weekend. Live to fight another day.... On we go..

Week 1: +50
Week 2: -1 (+49)
Week 3: +199 (+248)
Week 4: +140 (+388)
Week 5: -530 (-142)
Week 6: -99 (-241)




College Football

Teaser
  • Clemson +2 (vs Virginia Tech), TCU +12 (vs Texas Tech), Florida +6 (vs South Carolina)     30 to win 25  (W)
  • BYU +23 (at Notre Dame), Ohio State -9 (vs Purdue), Louisville +4.5 (vs South Florida)     30 to win 25   (L)

NFL

Straight
  • Seattle +270    25 to win 68   (L)

Parlay
  • Seattle +7 (at SF), Dallas -1.5 (at Carolina), New Orleans -2.5 (at Tampa Bay)   25 to win 146 63  (W)
(SEA pushed, becomes 2-team parlay)


Teaser
  • Seattle +17, Dallas +8.5, New Orleans +7    60 to win 50   (W)
Over/Under
  • Seattle at San Francisco - Under 37.5    28 to win 25   (W)

SPORTSBOOK

Here are a couple off the wall plays I went half on with TSB Co-Cap TPW Mike - here they are:

Parlay
  • Cleveland +2, Dallas -2.5, Detroit +6.5, Baltimore +6.5Seattle +8, Seattle/SF U 37.5     2.50 to win 187.50    (L)
  • Dallas -2.5, Detroit +6.5, Baltimore +6.5, New Orleans -2, Seattle +8    20 to win 500  (L)
Teaser
  • Detroit +16.5, Baltimore +16.5, Seattle +18         40 to win 33.33 (L)
DAMN YOU BALTIMORE!!!!

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Week 7 NFL Picks

1-3 on the regular picks, but hitting my 3rd Wild Card of the season helped, especially since the other guys hit their WC's as well. I need to start making good picks, starting to wonder what the hell is going on right now.. Might be up near the top in points which is important, but my record looks absolutely terrible. Not up to my standards.



Dallas -1 @ Carolina: This spread jumped out to me before any other spread. Dallas just went into Baltimore, where Baltimore simply does not lose, and they took them down to the last seconds. It's a game they actually should've won. And they're only a 1 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers? What am I missing here? I don't particularly love Tony Romo, but without DeMarco Murray and having to use a pass catching back in Felix Jones, he should be throwing all day and should burn this Panthers secondary which employs a couple of the worst safeties in the league.
(Source: BETON)



New Orleans -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - The record might not be there, but the Saints are still a dangerous team in desperate need for wins. We might assume they're out of the playoffs, but there's no way Drew Brees thinks they are, and he'll have them going coming out of the Bye Week. Absolutely no way the Saints are only a point better than the Bucs and I don't give a shit where the field is that they're playing on. 1 point should be an embarrassment. The defense also looks a lot better with more time under DC Steve Spagnuolo - Keep in mind it took the 2007 Giants a few games to adjust to him in his first couple of weeks on the job and they ended up leading the league in sacks and beating the 18-0 Patriots and one of the best offenses in history in the Super Bowl. Safe to say I have some faith in them. And their defensive captain should be back this week as well. Although dating back to 2008, this series is at 4-4 and I hate the Saints on the road, but two of those wins came @ Tampa Bay plus there's just too much good that has to be coming after all the bad the Saints have endured to start this season. UPDATE: Line was -1 yesterday when I wrote this, but to be fair I'm posting today and the line has moved to -2.5
(Source: 5dimes)



Seattle +7 @ San Francisco - I'm sure the Seahawks already watched the Giants/49ers game tape from this past Sunday, and I'm pretty sure the Seahawks defense is drooling. If the 49ers "vaunted" offensive line couldn't move the ball against the NY Giants, then sledding will be even tougher against the Seahawks. Here's some stats for you: Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 70 YPG. They're also 5th in the league with 17 sacks which will be tough to deal with without All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley who will be out with a concussion. Most impressive for me? They're 2nd in the NFL in PPG after going up against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo. All 4 QB's were in the Pro-Bowl last season, one happened to be the MVP of the league. Pretty sure Alex Smith is going to do nothing against this secondary which I think might just be the best in the NFL.
(Source: 5dimes)


Wild Card



Detroit +7 @ Chicago - In the wake of my Jay Cutler is terrible in primetime post, did you expect anything else?
(Source: 5dimes)

How Bad Is Jay Cutler When It Counts?



I don't go out of my way to despise Jay Cutler, it's just every single time I look at him I get angry... I feel like the guy from Step Brothers: I don't know what it is about your face, but I just wanna punch you right in the suck hole. It's not even so much about his play (which is fucking disgusting), it's how he reacts to his mistakes. It's NEVER his fault. I've never seen someone, a professional athlete, whine more like a baby than this guy.

Well anyway I don't care to watch him play football, ever. But sometimes it's unavoidable, the Bears get a lot of hype so they get a good amount of nationally televised games. Every time I watch him he shits the bed more than I thought anyone could possibly ever shit the bed. So I decided to look up his stats in nationally televised games since he came to the Bears for TWO first round picks (2009, 2010) and a third round pick (2009) along with Kyle Orton. A ridiculous haul for one of the most overrated QB's and biggest locker room cancers in the NFL. See the end of the post for the shakeout of that deal.

Here's Jay Cutler's performance in Primetime, and I'm going to show it two different ways.... The first, all games played in Primetime. The second, I'm going to exclude games played against the Vikings and the last Monday Night Football game against the Cowboys, which will effectively exclude all games played indoors.... Let's see the difference:

2009
  • 1-4, 55.9%, 8 TD, 13 INT, 62.05 QBR
  • 0-4, 55.7%, 4 TD, 13 INT, 52.72 QBR
2010
  • 4-2, 58.1%, 6 TD, 5 INT, 81.12 QBR
  • 3-2, 58.0%, 3 TD, 4 INT, 74.82 QBR
*Includes 2 Playoff games


2011
  • 1-1, 71%, 3 TD, 0 INT, 106.9 QBR
  • 0-1, 73.6%, 1 TD, 0 INT, 99.56 QBR

2012
  • 1-1, 56.8%, 3 TD, 4 INT, 69.15 QBR
  • 0-1, 40.7%, 1 TD, 4 INT, 28.24 QBR

CAREER WITH BEARS
  • 7-8, 58.9%, 20 TD, 22 INT, 74.97 QBR
  • 3-8, 57.2%, 9 TD, 20 INT, 60.98 QBR

Now I'm not sure exactly what it is about the Vikings, but Jay Cutler obviously just plays well against only them. Unless he's playing the Cowboys in Dallas in a temperature controlled atmosphere. On top of the fact he sucks under the spotlight, he's notoriously unhappy at all times. He was disgruntled when he left Denver and he's constantly disgruntled in Chicago. He claims his calling out teammates and throwing them under the bus on the sidelines is because he wants to win so bad and that he's real competitive... But as evidence in the NFC Championship game, with a Super Bowl berth on the line, he's not all that competitive:



Not long after this "knee injury" which forced him out of the biggest game of his career (when he was 6 of 14 for 80 yards and an INT), stories started circulating about the validity of the injury.... Here's one I found particularly interesting:

An insider who lived in the same building as Kristin and Jay in Chicago tells HollywoodLife.com that the football player was “incredibly rude” to his neighbors and Kristin used to get upset over how mean he was. Even more interesting? She said he faked his playoff injury last year! “Jay was not nice at all. He would not talk to any of us [the neighbors] and was extremely stand-offish. He was all about himself,” reveals our source. So how was his relationship with former fiancee Kristin? “Kristin would call Jay a loser and a p**sy, and she’d scream it at him so everyone could hear. They would have fights about Jay being too conceited. They would also argue over how mean he was to people. She would make a point of saying hello to people in the hall, just to piss him off,” our insider laughingly tells us. In January, they got into a big blow-out argument after Jay injured his knee during the NFL playoffs. He was diagnosed with a MCL sprain. “Kristin called Jay out, saying she thought he was faking the injury and told him he was worthless.”

(Source found here)

I think that tells us about all we need to know about this guy. Just to bury the knife a little deeper, many articles were published about how the same night of the NFC Championship game, in which he was so badly injured that he couldn't come back into the game, he was able to go out to dinner and walk up the stairs with no problem:

The Tribune‘s source said Cutler “limped a tiny bit,” when he came into the restaurant. Cutler and Cavallari were joined by 11 other folks in the private dining room upstairs. Of course they had to make it public that Cutler didn’t take the elevator upstairs, he decided to walk up the stairs. To add more insult to Cutler, we’ve learned that Saints quarterback Drew Brees played six games in 2010 with the same injury. His fullback Heath Evans was on ESPN earlier this week and he let the cat out of the bag when he talked about Brees playing with the same injury.

For comparison purposes, this was taken right from Philip Rivers' Wikipedia page:

In the 2007 AFC Championship Game, Rivers' was lauded by his teammates and the press for playing the entire game with a torn anterior cruciate ligament, which later required surgery and was ranked among the NFL Top 10 Gutsiest Performances. Chris Harry of the Orlando Sentinel said "I don't think anyone will ever accuse Philip Rivers of being soft." Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune said, "To go out there and put his knee, and ultimately his career, on the line. It has to go down as one of the gutsiest performances."

Cutler: NFC Championship Game. MCL Sprain. Out.
Rivers: AFC Championship Game: TORN ACL. PLAYED THROUGH IT.

And anyone that knows me knows that I'm not even a fan of Philip Rivers, but Goddammit do I respect him. I think by now we all know how I feel about Jay Cutler, for your sake I hope that we now share those same feelings.



For a funnier look at the douchiest face in all of sports, please check out http://smokinjaycutler.tumblr.com/ it's absolutely hilarious.




*The picks were wheeled and dealed since then but here's a quick overview: In 2009 the Broncos used the first round pick on DE Robert Ayers. The third round pick was packaged with their own third rounder to jump back into the second round to take TE Robert Quinn and for a 4th round pick which they used on G Seth Olsen. Both have since been released. The first round pick in 2010 was used on Demaryius Thomas, who after returning from an Achilles injury last season is now a top flight WR in Denver. They also got Eric Decker in that draft.

Chicago ended up getting Jay Cutler and used the fifth round pick to take Johnny Knox.

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Week 6 NFL Picks

So last week I waited until the injury report came out, barely used it, went against the picks I loved all week, and in the end I went 1-3. Coming off a miserable betting weekend on top of it, I'm ready to go with the instincts here and get after it.... Let's go.




(L) Pittsburgh -6 @ Tennessee - Although they didn't cover the spread, they ended up getting the W last week in a real physical battle with Philadelphia, containing Mike Vick and LeSean McCoy and forcing some turnovers. They're a hungry team and desperate for wins before getting into a brutal AFC North schedule. I like them to take care of business on TNF against a Tennessee team that's struggling badly to move the ball.



(W) Green Bay +3.5 @ Houston - Speaking of desperate, 2 and 3. Aaron Rodgers & Co. are coming off a brutal collapse to the Colts. Up 21-3 at the half, the Packers went to sleep and allowed Andrew Luck to take his team back for the W. Green Bay is starting to get questioned, and at 2-3 they're in a pretty big hole with the Vikings sitting at 4-1 atop the division. If Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite we all imagined they were, then a nationally televised game against the new best team in the NFL would be a great time to show up. Aaron Rodgers really needs to step up and have a monster game to get this team back on track.



(L) Minnesota +1.5 @ Washington - The Vikings have been impressive, namely Percy Harvin. The guy has been carrying the offense and taking pressure off of AP while the defense has stepped up to become one of the toughest in the league. None of this bodes well for the Redskins who are coming off a crushing defeat to the Falcons where they laid it all on the line. They didn't just lose the game, but lost their starting franchise QB as well - RGIII was concussed and is questionable at best this week. Redskins have also lost their last 8 home games.



Wild Card:



(W, +3 pts) NY Giants +7 @ San Francisco - Going to be a tough, physical, close game that I think will ultimately be decided by a last second field goal. If the Giants want to make sure they're the one's on the winning side of that FG, they'll need their pass rush to show up and make Alex Smith uncomfortable.

Week 6 Action

I think the only thing to do after an epic losing weekend, is to get right back on the horse and go back after it. This is after a full 36 hours of being able to clear my head and make more rational decisions. I'm going to stay small this week and grind out a decent weekend...

Week 1: +50
Week 2: -1 (+49)
Week 3: +199 (+248)
Week 4: +140 (+388)
Week 5: -530 (-142)

Last week wouldn't have been as bad if I didn't make a monster addition to a decent bet I already had on the Texans, but like any knee-jerk reaction to a losing Sunday, the add on Monday didn't work out. So after a real nice couple of weeks I'm back to the start, time to grind it back out and get myself into the green.


College Football

Teasers

(L) Michigan State PK (vs Iowa), Florida +1.5 (at Vanderbilt), Kansas State +3.5 (at Iowa State)    30 to win 25
(W) Notre Dame PK (vs Stanford), Washington +21 (vs USC)    33 to win 25

Parlays

(W) Florida -9 (at Vanderbilt), Notre Dame -7 (vs Stanford), Boise State -7 (vs Fresno State)   25 to win 145
ND pushed - total win = 65


NFL

Straight

(L) Indianapolis +160 (at NYJ)    25 to win 40

Teasers

(W) Baltimore +3.5 (vs Dallas), Green Bay +10.5 (at Houston)    33 to win 25
(L) Pittsburgh +1.5 (at Tennessee), Atlanta -2 (vs Raiders)        33 to win 25
(W) Pittsburgh +4.5 (at Tennessee), Baltimore +6.5 (vs Dallas), New England +6.5 (at Seattle)     60 to win 50
(L) Kansas City +13.5 (at Tampa Bay), Atlanta +1 (vs Raiders), Buffalo +14.5 (at Arizona)         30 to win 25
(L) Buffalo +14.5 (at Arizona), Minnesota +8.5 (at Washington), NY Giants +17 (at San Francisco)      120 to win 100

Thanks Ponder. Nice throw.


Parlays

(L) Baltimore -3 (vs Dallas), Buffalo +4.5 (at Arizona)    25 to win 59

Are you kidding me Baltimore? Won by 2?

Season Record
NFL: 10-10 (+28)
CFB: 0-2 (-170)

Week 5 Recap and Season Update

Rough week. Just so many great spreads and so many disappointing finishes. It was that ONE week of the season, like the Jaguars beating the Ravens last year on MNF type of week. Blaine Gabbert in his rookie season, beating Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.... That kind of weekend. So I'm glad it happened early and it's out of the way.. Now here's the carnage, I went 1-2 with my picks. I had ATL all week, hyping them to death in our email chain and even betting heavily on them, but didn't put them in my picks? I don't know where my head was on that one... Got caught up in the Giants usually sucking at home as heavy favorites which they only proved was the case when they were down 14-0 before I could scratch my balls and open a beer for the game. They rebounded though and ended up blowing out the Browns so that pick was a waste.

Bears -4.5 over Jags (W)
Steelers -3 over Eagles (L, won by 2 so gay)
Browns +10 over Giants (L)

WC Pick: Broncos over Pats (L)


Standings Update:

Mike - 12 (11-8-1)
Craig - 10 (9-11)
Ricky - 10 (8-12)
Jimmy - 9 (8-12)

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Chad Jones: Inspiration


I have a blog that's in progress, and it's about Chad Jones. His story hasn't ended, so I guess that blog hasn't ended either, waiting for the day he finally made the Giants roster and took his first professional snaps... But that never happened.. In May the Giants had to cut Chad Jones nearly two years after he almost lost his left leg, due to a failed physical. This was anticipated, but didn't deter his resolve. At the time, he wasn't ready... Yet. But he believes he will be, and so do I. I don't know what it is about him, or about the story - but I've followed it religiously since the day it happened. And it doesn't matter if the story is a Twitter update short or it's 3 pages long, without fail I end up with tears in my eyes. I don't think I've ever wanted someone to succeed more than this guy, but with everything he's gone through and all the work he's put in how could you not root for him? Much like I wanted the Giants to sign Mark Herzlich, it's almost a no-brainer to resign Chad Jones when he's ready. He deserves that chance and it's only right his first professional snaps come as a New York Giant, the way they were meant to be.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Week 4 Recap

I knew as soon as I wrote the sentence "If the world makes any sense" when talking about the Falcons game, I was fucked. Obviously they weren't gonna cover after I wrote that. Luckily in real life I teased them down to -1 and was okay.

The Giants game really f'ed me because I wrote this before news of Nicks being doubtful hit the internet. The line moved up to +2, which would've given me a push there.

I did hit on the WC pick, so in the standings that keeps me up near the top in points.

This week there are already a ton of enticing games I plan on going in on, and I can't hardly wait for Sunday to roll around. Been a couple shitty Thursday night games the last couple weeks and this week is no exception, so that whole Thursday night game breaking up the week thing kind of sucks lately. Oh well. Even though it sucks, it does still break up the week at least.

Pushing my picks back until Friday or Saturday this week to wait for the injury news - give myself a fighting chance here! 4-0 this week let's go!!!