Week 8 NFL Picks

What seems to be happening here is I'm starting to hit on some games, but I get overzealous on maybe 1 or 2 a week and those happen to be the ones I lose. I've got to stay consistent with my bets to stop getting burnt. Lot of season left and lots of time to make some money.... On we go.

(Thursday 10/24)
Carolina -5.5 @ Tampa Bay - 28 to win 25

(Sunday 10/29)
Kansas City -7 vs. Cleveland - 29 to win 25
Green Bay -10 @ Minnesota - 28 to win 25
Denver -13 vs. Washington - 28 to win 25

(Monday 10/30)
Seattle -10 @ St. Louis - 30 to win 25


Teaser

Pittsburgh +7.5
NY Jets +16.5   -   30 to win 25
Philadelphia +5


Parlay

Denver -11.5
Green Bay -10    -    25 to win 150
Seattle -11



Season Record: 9-13
O/U: 1-1
Teaser: 0-2
Parlay: 1-1
Bottom Line: -482

NFL Week 6 Picks

Chicago -7 vs. NY Giants - 115 to win 100
Minnesota -2.5 vs. Carolina - 110 to win 100
NY Jets -1 vs. Pittsburgh - 50 to win 45
PIT/NYJ u41 - 33 to win 30
Philadelphia -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - 57 to win 50
Jacksonville +27 @ Denver - 40 to win 36
WAS/DAL o52.5 - 40 to win 37


Season Record: 6-8
Teaser: 0-2
Parlay: 1-1
Bottom Line: -174

NFL Week 3 Picks

Philadelphia -3 vs. Kansas City (31 to win 25)
Kansas City 26 Philadelphia 16
Detroit +2.5 @ Washington (28 to win 25)
Green Bay -2.5 @ Cincinnatti (30 to win 25)
NY Giants +1 @ Carolina (28 to win 25)
Atlanta +3 @ Miami (30 to win 25)


Teaser

Green Bay +7.5
NY Giants +11    (30 to win 25)
Atlanta +12.5


Season Record: 0-0
Teasers: 0-0
Parlays: 0-0


WOW absolutely horrid week

Week 8 Action

NFL

Straight

• NYG/DAL
• Over 47.5
• 28 to win 25  (W)
• SF/ARI
• Under 38
• 28 to win 25  (W)
• MIA/NYJ
• Under 38.5
• 28 to win 25  (L)

Parlay

• NYG -1 (at DAL), NE -6.5 (in London playing STL), NO +6 (at DEN)
• 25 to win 150  (L)

College

Teaser

• USC +3.5, Ohio St. +9, Florida/Georgia Under 56
• 30 to win 25 (W)

Why Not Picks (SportsBook.com)

Playing the sports lottery, well, all of them except the first one... Oh and these do NOT count against my season record, strictly fun and insane picks that will never hopefully all hit. These are usually all $10 or under

• Teaser: OAK +12 (at KC), NO +16 (at DEN), SEA +13 (at DET)
• 5 to win 4.17 (Hit the wrong button, complete mistake but I'll take the 4.17 if it hits)

• Parlay: MIN -6.5 (vs TB), NYG -1.5 (at DAL), NE -7 ("at" STL), NO +6 (at DEN)
• 5 to win 64.58

• Parlay: SF (at ARZ), MIN (vs TB), SD (at CLE), ATL (at PHI), NYG -1.5 (at DAL), NE ("at" STL), OAK (at KC), PIT (vs WAS), NO +6 (at DEN)
• 5 to win 485.41

• Parlay: Nebraska -2.5 (vs Michigan), Wisconsin -6 (vs Mich. St.), Alabama -24 (vs Miss. St.), Oklahoma -10 (vs ND), S.Carolina -14 (vs Tennessee), Kansas St. -7 (vs Texas Tech)
• 10 to win 464.10

• Parlay: MIA (at NYJ), ATL (at PHI), NYG -2.5 (at DAL), NO (at DEN), SEA (at DET)
• 5 to win 298.57 

Week 1: +50
Week 2: -1 (+49)
Week 3: +199 (+248)
Week 4: +140 (+388)
Week 5: -530 (-142)
Week 6: -99 (-241)
Week 7: +108 (-133)


2012
NFL: 15-16 (-18)
CFB: 3-4 (-115)

Week 7 Action

So last week wasn't a total failure, but it wasn't pretty. The NFL bets look absolutely atrocious at 2-5, but were extremely close to hitting outside of a couple freak plays that didn't let it happen. I can live with that, it's not like they were blowouts (outside of the Indy game).

I was dead on with the Bills all day, and the Ravens as well. Then the Ravens blew their lead and my parlay by winning by 2 instead of 3. That's actually Dez Bryant's fault, he dropped a would-be 2 point conversion to tie the game and send it to OT where Baltimore easily could've won by 3 or more and gotten me points. Instead they win by 2 points and I lose my parlay with Buffalo.

Notre Dame cost me a big payout by pushing ATS when they beat Stanford by 7 points. I'm grateful they pushed instead of lost obviously, but that push instead of a W there cost me $80 off the payout.

My most confident play was the teaser that included the Giants, Bills and Vikings. The Vikings failed to show up and then collapsed late in the game when Washington and RGIII opened up a big lead. I needed them to cover 8.5 points and they got it to within 12. With 30 seconds left, they were knocking on the goal line and Christian Ponder threw a blind rainbow into the end-zone where there were absolutely zero Vikings and it was picked off. A garbage time touchdown there wins me $100. Instead it cost me $120. That was the one play that absolutely buried me this past weekend. Live to fight another day.... On we go..

Week 1: +50
Week 2: -1 (+49)
Week 3: +199 (+248)
Week 4: +140 (+388)
Week 5: -530 (-142)
Week 6: -99 (-241)




College Football

Teaser

• Clemson +2 (vs Virginia Tech), TCU +12 (vs Texas Tech), Florida +6 (vs South Carolina)     30 to win 25  (W)
• BYU +23 (at Notre Dame), Ohio State -9 (vs Purdue), Louisville +4.5 (vs South Florida)     30 to win 25   (L)

NFL

Straight

• Seattle +270    25 to win 68   (L)

Parlay

• Seattle +7 (at SF), Dallas -1.5 (at Carolina), New Orleans -2.5 (at Tampa Bay)   25 to win 146 63  (W)

(SEA pushed, becomes 2-team parlay)


Teaser

• Seattle +17, Dallas +8.5, New Orleans +7    60 to win 50   (W)

Over/Under

• Seattle at San Francisco - Under 37.5    28 to win 25   (W)

SPORTSBOOK

Here are a couple off the wall plays I went half on with TSB Co-Cap TPW Mike - here they are:

Parlay

• Cleveland +2, Dallas -2.5, Detroit +6.5, Baltimore +6.5, Seattle +8, Seattle/SF U 37.5     2.50 to win 187.50    (L)
• Dallas -2.5, Detroit +6.5, Baltimore +6.5, New Orleans -2, Seattle +8    20 to win 500  (L)

Teaser

• Detroit +16.5, Baltimore +16.5, Seattle +18         40 to win 33.33 (L)

DAMN YOU BALTIMORE!!!!

Week 7 NFL Picks

1-3 on the regular picks, but hitting my 3rd Wild Card of the season helped, especially since the other guys hit their WC's as well. I need to start making good picks, starting to wonder what the hell is going on right now.. Might be up near the top in points which is important, but my record looks absolutely terrible. Not up to my standards.

Dallas -1 @ Carolina: This spread jumped out to me before any other spread. Dallas just went into Baltimore, where Baltimore simply does not lose, and they took them down to the last seconds. It's a game they actually should've won. And they're only a 1 point favorite over the Carolina Panthers? What am I missing here? I don't particularly love Tony Romo, but without DeMarco Murray and having to use a pass catching back in Felix Jones, he should be throwing all day and should burn this Panthers secondary which employs a couple of the worst safeties in the league.
(Source: BETON)

New Orleans -2.5 @ Tampa Bay - The record might not be there, but the Saints are still a dangerous team in desperate need for wins. We might assume they're out of the playoffs, but there's no way Drew Brees thinks they are, and he'll have them going coming out of the Bye Week. Absolutely no way the Saints are only a point better than the Bucs and I don't give a shit where the field is that they're playing on. 1 point should be an embarrassment. The defense also looks a lot better with more time under DC Steve Spagnuolo - Keep in mind it took the 2007 Giants a few games to adjust to him in his first couple of weeks on the job and they ended up leading the league in sacks and beating the 18-0 Patriots and one of the best offenses in history in the Super Bowl. Safe to say I have some faith in them. And their defensive captain should be back this week as well. Although dating back to 2008, this series is at 4-4 and I hate the Saints on the road, but two of those wins came @ Tampa Bay plus there's just too much good that has to be coming after all the bad the Saints have endured to start this season. UPDATE: Line was -1 yesterday when I wrote this, but to be fair I'm posting today and the line has moved to -2.5
(Source: 5dimes)

Seattle +7 @ San Francisco - I'm sure the Seahawks already watched the Giants/49ers game tape from this past Sunday, and I'm pretty sure the Seahawks defense is drooling. If the 49ers "vaunted" offensive line couldn't move the ball against the NY Giants, then sledding will be even tougher against the Seahawks. Here's some stats for you: Seattle's defense ranks 2nd in the NFL in rush defense, allowing just 70 YPG. They're also 5th in the league with 17 sacks which will be tough to deal with without All-Pro left tackle Joe Staley who will be out with a concussion. Most impressive for me? They're 2nd in the NFL in PPG after going up against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Tony Romo. All 4 QB's were in the Pro-Bowl last season, one happened to be the MVP of the league. Pretty sure Alex Smith is going to do nothing against this secondary which I think might just be the best in the NFL.
(Source: 5dimes)


Wild Card

Detroit +7 @ Chicago - In the wake of my Jay Cutler is terrible in primetime post, did you expect anything else?
(Source: 5dimes)

Week 6 NFL Picks

So last week I waited until the injury report came out, barely used it, went against the picks I loved all week, and in the end I went 1-3. Coming off a miserable betting weekend on top of it, I'm ready to go with the instincts here and get after it.... Let's go.

(L) Pittsburgh -6 @ Tennessee - Although they didn't cover the spread, they ended up getting the W last week in a real physical battle with Philadelphia, containing Mike Vick and LeSean McCoy and forcing some turnovers. They're a hungry team and desperate for wins before getting into a brutal AFC North schedule. I like them to take care of business on TNF against a Tennessee team that's struggling badly to move the ball.

(W) Green Bay +3.5 @ Houston - Speaking of desperate, 2 and 3. Aaron Rodgers & Co. are coming off a brutal collapse to the Colts. Up 21-3 at the half, the Packers went to sleep and allowed Andrew Luck to take his team back for the W. Green Bay is starting to get questioned, and at 2-3 they're in a pretty big hole with the Vikings sitting at 4-1 atop the division. If Green Bay is the Super Bowl favorite we all imagined they were, then a nationally televised game against the new best team in the NFL would be a great time to show up. Aaron Rodgers really needs to step up and have a monster game to get this team back on track.

(L) Minnesota +1.5 @ Washington - The Vikings have been impressive, namely Percy Harvin. The guy has been carrying the offense and taking pressure off of AP while the defense has stepped up to become one of the toughest in the league. None of this bodes well for the Redskins who are coming off a crushing defeat to the Falcons where they laid it all on the line. They didn't just lose the game, but lost their starting franchise QB as well - RGIII was concussed and is questionable at best this week. Redskins have also lost their last 8 home games.



Wild Card:

(W, +3 pts) NY Giants +7 @ San Francisco - Going to be a tough, physical, close game that I think will ultimately be decided by a last second field goal. If the Giants want to make sure they're the one's on the winning side of that FG, they'll need their pass rush to show up and make Alex Smith uncomfortable.

Week 6 Action

I think the only thing to do after an epic losing weekend, is to get right back on the horse and go back after it. This is after a full 36 hours of being able to clear my head and make more rational decisions. I'm going to stay small this week and grind out a decent weekend...

Week 1: +50
Week 2: -1 (+49)
Week 3: +199 (+248)
Week 4: +140 (+388)
Week 5: -530 (-142)

Last week wouldn't have been as bad if I didn't make a monster addition to a decent bet I already had on the Texans, but like any knee-jerk reaction to a losing Sunday, the add on Monday didn't work out. So after a real nice couple of weeks I'm back to the start, time to grind it back out and get myself into the green.


College Football

Teasers

(L) Michigan State PK (vs Iowa), Florida +1.5 (at Vanderbilt), Kansas State +3.5 (at Iowa State)    30 to win 25
(W) Notre Dame PK (vs Stanford), Washington +21 (vs USC)    33 to win 25

Parlays

(W) Florida -9 (at Vanderbilt), Notre Dame -7 (vs Stanford), Boise State -7 (vs Fresno State)   25 to win 145
ND pushed - total win = 65


NFL

Straight

(L) Indianapolis +160 (at NYJ)    25 to win 40

Teasers

(W) Baltimore +3.5 (vs Dallas), Green Bay +10.5 (at Houston)    33 to win 25
(L) Pittsburgh +1.5 (at Tennessee), Atlanta -2 (vs Raiders)        33 to win 25
(W) Pittsburgh +4.5 (at Tennessee), Baltimore +6.5 (vs Dallas), New England +6.5 (at Seattle)     60 to win 50
(L) Kansas City +13.5 (at Tampa Bay), Atlanta +1 (vs Raiders), Buffalo +14.5 (at Arizona)         30 to win 25
(L) Buffalo +14.5 (at Arizona), Minnesota +8.5 (at Washington), NY Giants +17 (at San Francisco)      120 to win 100

Thanks Ponder. Nice throw.


Parlays

(L) Baltimore -3 (vs Dallas), Buffalo +4.5 (at Arizona)    25 to win 59

Are you kidding me Baltimore? Won by 2?

Season Record
NFL: 10-10 (+28)
CFB: 0-2 (-170)

Week 5 Recap and Season Update

Rough week. Just so many great spreads and so many disappointing finishes. It was that ONE week of the season, like the Jaguars beating the Ravens last year on MNF type of week. Blaine Gabbert in his rookie season, beating Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.... That kind of weekend. So I'm glad it happened early and it's out of the way.. Now here's the carnage, I went 1-2 with my picks. I had ATL all week, hyping them to death in our email chain and even betting heavily on them, but didn't put them in my picks? I don't know where my head was on that one... Got caught up in the Giants usually sucking at home as heavy favorites which they only proved was the case when they were down 14-0 before I could scratch my balls and open a beer for the game. They rebounded though and ended up blowing out the Browns so that pick was a waste.

Bears -4.5 over Jags (W)
Steelers -3 over Eagles (L, won by 2 so gay)
Browns +10 over Giants (L)

WC Pick: Broncos over Pats (L)


Standings Update:

Mike - 12 (11-8-1)
Craig - 10 (9-11)
Ricky - 10 (8-12)
Jimmy - 9 (8-12)

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 4 LOCKS

Cincinnati -1 @ Jacksonville - I picked this same game Week 5 last season, basically all the Bengals had to do was take care of MJD and they would be fine. They did that, they won by 10. Really not a whole lot has changed since then, the only offense they have runs through MJD. Bengals should have a pretty good idea on a game plan headed into this one.

NY Giants +1 @ Philadelphia - I hate that I keep picking road teams, but the Giants simply don't play the Eagles well at home - the only times they beat them is in Philadelphia so this seems like a no brainer. LeSean McCoy has started talking again and all he did was probably fire the Giants defense up. I'm sure the offense with 12 turnovers in the first three games really needed to do that.

Atlanta -7 vs. Carolina - Not sure if anyone remembers what the Giants just did to Carolina minus three key offensive starters... If you didn't see it just look at the final score (36-7) and that should tell you about all you need to know. Atlanta, by the way, is not down three key offensive starters and they look downright scary on offense. Carolina might score some points (I don't think their offense is as terrible as it looked last Thursday night) but I really don't see them keeping up with Atlanta in the dome. If the world makes any sense, Atlanta should win this game by two touchdowns.



Wild Card Pick:

St. Louis +3 vs. Seattle - Short week for Seattle, not to mention the insane MNF Massacre they were directly involved in, that shouldn't have created any distractions for the team or anything. They're only trying to prepare, practice, travel and game plan on a short week with interviews about if they won last weeks game or not. I also like St. Louis at home, think they're a tougher defensive team than many give them credit for. I really just don't see Seattle fully focused while trying to plan and play week 4 with their head turned around wondering if they really won week 3. Has upset written all over it.

Week's 2 and 3 and Season Update

Week 2

Week 3

Obviously Week 1 was an utter disaster for me. Probably the most unpredictable week of the season, but no one should go 0-5 out of the gate. Well here is where we see what kind of mental make-up I've got, how can I dig myself out of this hole? I went into Week 2 looking to chip away, came out of it with 2 wins, took an L in the Wild Card but so did the rest of the group. Week 3 I chip away some more, with 2 more wins I'm looking good and I also hit on my Wild Card game to give me some points. So after two weeks here are the standings:

 

Regular Picks:

    Mike - 6-2-1

Craig - 5-4

Ricky - 4-5

Jimmy - 4-5

Wild Card:

 Mike - 1-2

Ricky - 1-2

Craig - 0-3

Jimmy - 0-3

Overall Points Standings

(Regular Pick 1pt, WC 2pts)

   Mike -      8 (7-4-1)

Ricky -     6 (5-7)

Craig -      5 (5-7)

Jimmy -     4 (4-8)

Mike is looking solid so far this season, but we all need to step our games up. Not too hot to start off, but we're about to hit our stride.. Week 4 picks will be posted up sometime after noon..

NFL KICKOFF WEEK!! 2012 LOCK PICKS!! SUCKER FREE SUNDAY'S ARE BACK!!

It's like Christmas around here with the NFL season upon us, and what better way to get things going than betting money on games amongst friends? Between shit like this and fantasy football, I'm willing to bet I lose my job within the next 3 months, would also take side-bets that I'm living on the street in less than 6. While I'm here, I offer you my picks:

New Orleans -7.5 vs. Washington - Normally I'd be weary of that little half point, but I'm not right here. The Saints are an offensive hurricane at home (too soon?). They tend to struggle on the road, but since that doesn't apply here I'll take them in a home opener against a suspect defense and rookie QB. With all the uncertainty surrounding their coaching staff and defense, the one thing that is certain is Drew Brees. That's really all that matters.

Buffalo +3 @ NY Jets - I hate to go against the Jets here, I think they have a rabid fan base that should make MetLife Stadium pretty crazy for their home opener... But I believe in the Bills. Since they signed this guy Mario Williams, I believe in them. I never thought I'd say this back in 2006, but Mario Williams justifiably went #1 in that draft. Guy is an absolute beast, and according to my mom and dad who met him at Yankee Stadium a couple months ago - the guy is nice as hell, too. I think he tremendously improves a defense that wasn't THAT terrible last season. They also stole Mark Anderson from New England, further strengthening their edge rush while weakening a division opponent, love that move. They have Marcell Dareus back for a full offseason in his second year paired with Kyle Williams inside, making this what I think will be an elite defensive front in 2012. Pair that with the extremely well documented troubles the Jets offense has been having and I find it extremely difficult to believe the Jets can spot anyone points right now..



NY Giants -4 vs. Dallas - I hate to pick against the Jets and then go pick for the Giants, but it's just that kind of "Perfect Storm" kind of scenario, if you will. I think with all the talk about Victor Cruz (and deservedly so), people are forgetting just how good Hakeem Nicks is, sometimes I think he's almost too quiet for his own good. The Cowboys are riddled with injuries to key guys, most notably Jason Witten. He probably won't play which severely hurts Dallas. Miles Austin is one mistep away from his hamstring permanently exploding, and Dez Bryant is about one backhand to a woman away from being banned from the NFL. The Cowboys are starting two new cornerbacks in 2012. One, a cornerback who has never faced top-flight WR's and comes from a pretty small market, was a 5th round pick and has somehow parlayed 8 career interceptions in 4 years into a $50 million dollar contract and all the expectations in the world. Two, a rookie who has an IQ which matches up pretty well with his jersey number whose teammate in college who went up against him every day in practice now plays for the Giants and knows all his weaknesses. Good luck guys. Should be fun trying to defend Eli Manning during NFL's Kickoff Game while the entire world watches you get torched. The more I think about this, the more I love it. And I didn't even talk about the Giants defensive line, wow. #JPP #DPOY

Wild Card Games

Indianapolis +9 @ Chicago - I don't want to miss the Luck bandwagon. I honestly like what I've seen from him, if he plays like he has throughout the preseason, then he's already a solid starting QB. I think that makes Indianapolis a little more respectful than the spread indicates. I like them to hold their own.

Kansas City +3 vs. Atlanta - Behind Chicago, my most hated team due to hype and overratedness has got to be the Atlanta Falcons. Again, they come into a year with a ton of hype, can they deliver? We'll see what this overrated defense can do against Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis. I think KC will control the ball, and they've got a very underrated pass rush that can disrupt Matty Ice. I love me some Julio Jones, but a WR isn't winning you games on the road all by himself. Wouldn't be surprised if KC wins this one straight up. Should be week one of sixteen on the road to Comeback Player of the Year for Jamaal Charles.

2012 Record: 0-0 (Wild Card 0-0)

SUCKER FREE SUNDAY: WEEK 16 PICKS

Gotta do this fast because it's 12:45 and right now I have maybe 1 sure pick in my head, but I just thought of two more so here we go:

Philadelphia +1 - The team is hot right now, and with the Cowboys and Giants looking like pure shit, they actually might win the division when they win the next two games. Fuck it hurt to write that.

Denver -2.5 - Tebow isn't wearing sleeves in Buffalo, God's son doesn't lose.

San Diego +1.5 - Typical Chargers, making an inexplainable run to win the division. They need this game, Detroit is slipping, their defense can't match up with Rivers and V Jax when they're hot.

2011 Record: 22-18-2

WC Picks (Record: 9-11):

Seattle +1.5 - SF has nothing to play for at this point, Marshawn Lynch will get the first rushing TD against SF this year.

NY Giants +3 - Just praying for a shootout, really is the Giants only hope is if this game becomes a barnburner. They need to admit they're a passing first team this year, please just don't try and run/run/pass. Pass all day, Nicks needs to come up big on Revis.

For The Record...

Made my picks in the parking lot of Giants Stadium MetLife Stadium yesterday because I forgot to post them before the weekend. Anyway I sent an email to Craig so it'd be on record, but without the fancy post with all the pictures and explanations here's what I picked:

Pittsburgh +3

Baltimore -1

New England -6.5


PS - Good game Baltimore.

SUCKER Free Sunday: Week 14 LOCKS

Here we go, continuing to rack up W's, going to continue to do it with these picks:

New England -7 - Really? Give me a break.

New Orleans -3 - In the Saints 9 wins, the average margin of victory is 16.4 points. I expect them to win this game, I expect them to cover 3 points.

Carolina +3 - Another week, another pick of Carolina aka I'm picking Cam Newton. At home against one of the most overrated teams in the NFL over the last two years. Newton extends his NFL record for rushing TD by a QB and probably ends up leading the league when all is said and done.

2011 record: 21-16-2 (WC 7-11)

Wild Card Picks


NY Giants +4.5 - Giants have won both games they've playing in Jerry Jones Asshole Stadium, they NEED to win this game if they want to have any shot of getting into the playoffs, I think Tony Romo might get knocked out of this game, too.

Minnesota +10.5 - Just heard AP is out and Ponder is in, not happy about that - would rather AP in and Ponder out so Joe Webb would start, that would create a nightmare matchup for Detroit. Detroit has been so shitty lately I just can't see them cleaning it up enough in one week (without a starting RB) to be favored by 10.5 points.

LOCK Pick Standings Through Week 13, Sorry Mike

In terms of pure winning percentage, Galt holds the lead, but if I picked games only on weeks I felt like it I'm sure I'd be doing better as well - but because myself and Mike are real men we make our picks each week subsequently choosing harder games therefor lowering our success rate - so since we've each picked in four weeks that Galt conveniently did not, we obviously deserve more credit. That's why I wrote all that.

2011 Standings:

Galt: 17-9-1 (.630)

RP: 21-17-1 (.538)

Mike: 17-19-3 (.436)

Mike is enduring one of the toughest yet strangest stretches of his career, 5-12-1 since week 8 including a brutal 0-9 stretch. I'd have to assume the worst is behind him as he looks to finish the season strong into the playoffs.

Galt has decided to pick and choose his weeks as if this was a legitimate gambling operation and money was actually involved, yet in real life still is afraid to gamble despite his 63% winning rate. Maybe that will change and he'll start making moves so we can get some money flow into the apartment.

I've tripped up as of late, after my first 3-0 of the season week 9 I followed it up with my first 0-3 week. Bounced back with two winning weeks in a row and looking to extend my lead in the wins column to close out the season strong. Once the Playoffs come we'll have to pick every game so there's more chance for a shakeup in the standings.

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 13 LOCKS

First of all, I can't believe it's week 13 already - shit is flying by.... As Darren McFadden sits on the bench... Things have slowed down after a blazing hot start for me, but things could be worse and I could pick like Mike so things are still looking up.. We all had good weeks last week, but this week I feel a little stronger about some games than others, I like what's on tap this weekend:




If that's not the greatest picture in sports I don't know what is.

Seattle +3 - The Eagles are coming off a fucking embarrassing rout at home against the Patriots. They were up 10-0 and still managed to lose 38-20. They looked lost on defense and had no idea what to do on offense but throw the ball up for grabs. Desean Jackson is busy getting benched on a weekly basis, Rogers-Cromartie, Maclin and Vick are out and now Nnamdi Asomugha and LeSean McCoy are questionable. I just don't see a team getting up after a demoralizing loss to go cross country to play the Seahawks without half of their starters.

RODGGGGAAAAS! DISCOUNT DOUBLE CHECK!!

Green Bay -6.5 - Look, I'm a die hard Giants fan. Even I can't understand how this spread is closing and getting smaller. The fact it's not two touchdowns is blowing my mind. Aaron Rodgers is going to discount double check all over this spread, he barely throws incompletions let alone INT's and the Giants only weapon is their missing pass rush which I saw on a milk carton last week. They're starting 6th round draft picks and undrafted FA's at linebacker, so expect Jermichael Finley to have a huge day over the middle and Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb to be running free across the middle all day. Not sure how the Giants figure out how to slow this offense down, let alone stop them.

Arizona +4.5 - This is just going off of recent performances. In Dallas' last five games, they're 1-4 ATS - eeking out victories against Washington (OT) and Miami at home by 1 point. Arizona on the other hand is 4-1 in their last five, beating Philly on the road and narrowly missing a win AT Baltimore. They have a solid run defense which will be tough for DeMarco Murray to navigate and John Skelton is figuring out all he has to do is throw the ball to Larry Fitzgerald who should smoke Dallas' below average secondary.

2011 Record: 19-15-2 (WC 5-11)

Wild Card Picks

Carolina +3 - Okay, I feel like we do this literally every single week. This is a game I feel Carolina will win straight up so even if they don't, Mr. Cover All The Time will make things happen.

Kansas City +8 - Look I know I consistently go against the Bears, but even WITH Jay Cutler, how is the spread this high? They have Caleb Hanie behind center. I also think the addition of Kyle Orton will help Kansas City decipher some of Chicago's calls - Ala Kevin Kolb in Philadelphia. There's just nothing to like about this game, two backup QB's going after it, but I like KC's pass rush - if they can keep a game close against Pittsburgh they can definitely keep it close against Chicago with Hanie back there.

Week 13 Picks: Almost Back to .500 (@mspici)

Browns +7

Bengals +7: I like them to win this game outright.

Chargers -1.5: Same pattern every year- lose enough to get Norv Turner on the hot seat, win like crazy in the second half of the season.


Record: 16-17-3

Sucker Free Sunday: Week 12 LOCKS

Alright, last couple weeks haven't gone as planned but lucky for me no one reads this, don't really have strong feelings about this weeks games so just going to wing this shit, here we go:

Carolina -2.5 - Indianapolis is home, that's about all they've got going for them.. They obviously are trying to run the table in the Suck For Luck sweepstakes and Cam Newton should have no problem carving apart their defense. For fantasy purposes I hope all his passes go to Steve Smith for touchdowns.

NY Jets -9.5 - The Bills have fucked me twice this year. Week 1 and last week. They've officially lost Fred Jax for the season who was really their only weapon. Their quarterback is a nerd and they have one of the most overrated WR's in the league, this team is done. Jets actually have a shot to make the playoffs, they'll come out hot. Big things for #25 today playing in place of LT.

New England -3 - This is a joke right? Only 3 point favorites over the biggest fraud of a team in history? The 4-6 Eagles are only 3 point dogs to the New England Patriots.... Okay. I honestly don't know how Vince Young can be so terrible and still have everyone give him credit like he's good at football. Vick is questionable yet this spread is still only 3? So the Pats would only be 6 or 7 point favorites if they were home? But against the 5-2 Giants they were 9.5 point favorites? I'm just confused, tired, partially hungover and flabbergasted this spread is so close I just don't know what to do other than say I'd LOCK THIS SHIT UP!

2011 Record 17-14-2 (WC 4-10)

Wild Card Picks

Denver +6 - Tebow. That's it.

NY Giants +8.5 - Like the offensive matchup, but if the Saints exploit the Giants linebackers this game will be over by the end of the first quarter.

Week 12 Picks by Johny Galt

A 3-0 week for me.  I'm heating up.  Now that I've jinxed myself let's see if I can keep it going:

Carolina -3.5 @ Indy

Last week I picked against Carolina, saying the days of them beating good teams was fading.  Well, the days of them beating bad teams are still with us.  They have too many weapons for the hapless Colts to try and keep pace with.

@ Cincinatti -7 vs Cleveland

Cinci has had two tough losses, but I thought they played respectably in both.  Jerome Simpson is quietly becoming a top receiver.  And personally, I think Andy Dalton has a cannon.  Unlike Colt McCoy, whose arm would be most accurately described as a nerf bow and arrow.  I don't normally like teams with weak RBs, but Cincinatti has faced both Baltimore's and Pitt's tough defenses.  They are due for a blue out.


Houston -3.5 @ Jax

Picking two road favorites, Mspici's head is going to explode.  Am I the only person who thinks this should be a blow out?  Yea, Schaub is out.  But honestly, how much of Schaub's passing stats come from him and how much comes from Arian Foster breaking off 80 yard runs on screen passes?  The return of AJ, to me, more than makes up for the downgrade from Schaub to Leinart.  Houston's defense has been solid.  Jax offense is woeful.  This will be a two TD game at least. 

Record: 12-8-1